RUSH: You know, that CNN poll yesterday that had it tied 49-49 with a Democrat-plus-11 sample? I looked at that poll.
And there is a piece of information in that poll that, if it is accurate, makes Dick Morris right on the money. It is a stunning, in fact, little-bitty piece of information that's tucked away in a chart that 9-out-of-ten, 99-out-of-a-hundred, 999-out-of-a-thousand people would gloss over and not even see. But if it's right? Whew! If it's right, folks, we're whistling Dixie here. I'll get to that in just a moment.
Again the questions: Do you think more Republicans will vote today than did in 2008 for John McCain? Do you think fewer Democrats will vote today than did for Obama in 2008? Fine. If the turnout, Republican turnout is like 2010, Romney wins big. If it's like 2004, Romney wins big. However, if the turnout today is like 2008, then Obama's gonna win. It's that simple. If the turnout's like 2008. Does anybody think that the turnout's gonna be like 2008?
Yeah, the polls do. The polls all do. And, by the way, let me clarify something for you in these polls. Let's use CNN. CNN has a Democrat sample of plus 11. Many people misunderstand that CNN puts it together that way on purpose. That's not what happens. CNN is not deciding to interview 11% more Democrats than Republicans because they think that's what the turnout's gonna be.
CNN is just calling their sample. If it's 1200 people, they call 1200 people. And of that 1200 people, there were plus-11 Democrats in that sample. That's why they do it. It's not that they're orchestrating it. It's not that they're saying, "We want a sample of Democrat plus 11 so that's what we're gonna put together." That's what genuinely happens when they make their phone calls or do their interviews.
Then you add some things to it. Republicans don't usually talk to pollsters, particularly evangelicals. But that's why the polls believe what they believe. They are not assembling these samples. They're making their phone calls. Now, their sample, who knows what they know before they put it together, but I'm telling you.
They will tell you (and any other professional pollster will tell you, "No, no, no! We just called our 1200 people and it turned out today that we ended up with a Democrat sample of plus 11." Scott Rasmussen today, by the way, said, "I have no clue. I have no idea. I don't know what's gonna happen. First time in my career I have no idea."
Ed Goeas, the Battleground Poll. The last Battleground Poll has it Romney by a point and a half. That's about 1,200,000 votes. That's enough to win, plus the Electoral College. But there's this little thing in this CNN poll that I want to run by you. I don't want to make too big a deal of it because nobody has, but it's there. I mean, it's in their poll that everybody's touting as one of the polls that we should believe.
RUSH: Okay, let's look at this CNN poll from yesterday, which everybody touted. We talked about it, too. The CNN poll had it tied 49-49, and a Democrat sample of plus 11. And it also had Romney ahead of Obama in independents 59 to 37. Everybody talked about that, and everybody was puzzled. They were scratching their heads. "What is this Democrat plus 11? Where did you get that?" That's just how their sample turned out.
And Romney is ahead in independents by a large margin. But there's something else in this CNN poll that nobody talked about. I don't know. When I looked at it, I said, "This can't be right." Then I looked at everything else, and everything else adds up. Let me tell you what the CNN poll says on partisan preference, on who's gonna vote and how: 99% of the Republicans are gonna vote for Romney and 1% are gonna vote for Obama.
The independents: 59% are gonna vote for Romney, and 37% for Obama. Those numbers were all reported. But there's one more. According to CNN's poll yesterday, 5% of Democrats will vote for Romney and 93% will vote for Obama. So let's put it all together. Democrats plus 11, tied poll, 49-49, Romney wins independents 59-37. However, 99%...
This is what CNN says. This is the voting pattern in their poll: 99% of the Republicans voting for Romney; 5% of Democrats voting for Romney, and 59% of independents voting for Romney. That 5% of Democrats that CNN says is gonna vote for Romney, if that happens, this is all academic. By the way, does anybody know anybody who voted for McCain who's voting for Obama?
Do you know anybody who voted for Obama who may be voting for Romney? I know it's anecdotal, but I know a bunch of them. Anyway, this little number here is... I don't know what to make of this. But to me, if it's accurate... It's a part of the poll. It's one part of it that nobody mentioned. I don't know if anybody saw it or if they didn't give it any weight, but they reported the independent split. They reported the Democrat plus 11.
See, the Democrat plus 11 doesn't tell us how that Democrat sample's gonna vote. It's the internal in the CNN poll that tells you that. So a Democrat plus 11 sample, yeah, it sounds bad if all Democrats are gonna vote for Obama. But according to the CNN poll itself, 5% of Democrats today are voting for Romney, along with 99% of Republicans, and 59% of independents.
If that happens, no wonder Obama was crying last night in Iowa. Now, I am not predicting it, and I'm not saying bank on it. And none of this matters if you don't vote. None of the answers to my questions matter if you don't vote. This 5% Democrats voting for Romney doesn't matter if people don't vote. The 99% of Republicans voting for Romney doesn't matter if people don't vote.
This is a turnout election, and the best thing I can tell you is: Do not listen to anything anybody says from now on about exit polls, about fraud, about voting machines, about anything. Just vote, and take as many people with you as you can. Just vote! It's a turnout election, and it is voting that's going to determine the outcome. I know it sounds simple, but it's true.
RUSH: You know what, folks? I'm gonna tell you another little theory that I have. I can't prove it. I can't document it. But there's a whole bunch of independents out there now, right? This last guy from Iowa, in his poll so far, 78 people showed -- it's not a big number, but the breakdown is interesting. Thirty-eight Republicans out of 78 voters, seven Democrats, and the rest are independents. And in all of these polls, we got Romney up double digit in independents in many of them and the high single digits in others.
My theory is that the independents of today are actually made up of a lot of Republicans, former Republicans who, for whatever reason, signed off of Republican registration. They could have been mad at something the party did, not raising money, not being conservative enough after they got elected. It could be any number of things. It could be to protect themselves with pollsters and everybody else. It's much safer as an independent, and as an independent you are highly valued. Independents make the world go round. Independents as opposed to moderates. Moderates and independents are two different things. A moderate's nothing more than a liberal without the guts to say so. But I think a lot of these independents today are ex-Republicans. Can't prove it. Just one of these gut feelings that I've got.