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My Apple Predictions

BEGIN TRANSCRIPT

RUSH:  You know, Open Line Friday is not just for you. I just decided this. On Open Line Friday, I say, "You can talk about things that I don't care about."  Well, guess what?  On Open Line Friday, I can talk about things that you don't care about.  You know, it works both ways. 

Monday through Thursday when we take phone calls, it's gotta be from people that care about what I'm interested in, otherwise I'm gonna sound bored -- and, if I sound bored, nobody's gonna listen.  We don't want that.  But on Friday, sweep all that aside. Whatever you want to talk about is fine.  It's a concession to the belief that there may be things you would like to hear on this program or talk about that will never be discussed Monday through Thursday.  If you want to bring 'em up, you've got that chance. 

But I just decided that I, as host, ought to have the same opportunity.  In fact, not only do I talk about the things I'm passionate about Monday through Friday, but there are a lot of things I'm interested in that I never talk to you about because I think you won't care, and I don't want you being bored, even though I know full well that I'm not boring.  When I'm talking about something I'm passionate about, you listen.  Anybody does.  It's the great thing about passion. 

People who are passionate, you listen to 'em no matter what they're saying -- either to be amused, mesmerized, shocked, whatever.  I figure, "Why should I leave myself out?  Why can't I talk about things that you don't care about on Friday?"  So I want to talk about the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference on Monday.  I realize a lot of you get ticked off when I mention Apple 'cause you think they're a bunch of leftist libs and that I'm being hoodwinked by using their stuff.

You think I'm propping up leftist libs by buying Apple and using their stuff, and you may be right.  In this case, I don't care, because to me Apple's not a political outfit.  They're high tech, and I happen to think they're the best.  By the way, one of the things that's been happening with Apple since September that's actually been kind of noteworthy... In fact, it's had lessons transferable to the things that we talk about on this program every day. 

For whatever reason, the tech media, some of the mainstream media, and some of the investment houses in this country have been... How should I put it?  They've been ripping Apple to shreds.  In September, the stock price was $705.  It's now around $430, $425, $440 or something.  I mean, they have really decimated the Apple stock price.  Short sellers have had a fun time.  The tech media... You know, I read these blogs as a hobby.

They have just been ripping this company left and right, "Apple can't do anything right!" and they have been building up Samsung. "Samsung's the greatest thing since sliced bread!" and it turns out today that Samsung's new phone the Galaxy S4? Guess what?  It isn't selling.  There was all this talk about how Samsung has overtaken Apple with better phones, better features, faster service, more phones more often. It really has been a study in media bias. 

It really has been.  I've commented on it a couple of times, but it's been fascinating to watch the media bias against Apple and trying to understand it.  Apple's a good leftist bunch.  Why in the world does the tech media hate 'em?  I don't have an answer. I don't know.  But it was obvious for a while that not in all, but in many of these places I read, there was a deep-seated animus.  Well, I, too, have some problems with Apple as a Fanboy, as a customer. 

I wish they had more phones, and I wish they came out with more stuff more often and I wish they upgraded their operation system more often and I wish they'd put a lot more features into it than they do. I think Android, in terms of features, has surpassed Apple.  I think there's more there. It's not gonna make me switch by any stretch because the quality, Apple still owns it. But I do wonder: "Why are they so slow?

"Why are they so slow upgrading phones, software, and this kind of thing?" And the reason that they say, the reason they put forth, is that they are not gonna do it 'til it's the best. They're not gonna put it out 'til it's ready. They're not gonna make any tradeoffs. They're not gonna cut corners. The truth is, Apple does not trail blaze.  Apple lets other people get into businesses and when Apple thinks the time's right, they move in and do it better than anybody else has ever done. 

Cell phones had been around long before the iPhone, but nobody had ever done it as well as they have.  Anyway, the Worldwide Developers Conference is coming up on Monday, and Apple hasn't had anything like this in 215 days, and people are bursting at the seams. Apple fans are like fans of a sports team.  They want it to win.  They don't want it to fall behind. They want it to remain everything that it was simply because they have a fan attachment to it and a devotion. 

So 210 days, no new products, no new announcements of any major importance.  Apple fans are worried. "Is it over?  Is that it?  Is that the end of their innovation?  What's happened to 'em?  Don't they care what the competition's doing?  Aren't they worried about what's going on, various aspects?"  So everybody's looking forward to this thing on Monday in greater anticipation than a long, long time, because a bunch of new stuff is being announced, and people have great expectations and high hopes for it. 

One of the things is a new operating system for the iPhone and the iPad.  The current one is iOS 6, and iOS 7 is coming up.  The design for iOS 7 has been taken over by a guy named Jony Ive.  Now, here's another.  I'm not sure about the pronunciation of his last name.  It's I-v-e, and I've heard it pronounced "I've," but I have read in two different places (he's British) that it's pronounced "ivy," and since I don't listen to much, I don't really know what the correct pronunciation is.

So I sometimes will say it both ways just to cover my bases.  Now, the tech community is all excited here because the tech community -- the bloggers and all of these snarky people that couldn't do what Apple does -- will sit there and tell you everything in the world they're doing wrong.  One of the things that these people hate is called skeuomorphism, and skeuomorphism is making a digital or electronic item look like its real world counterpart.

So the notes app on an iPhone or an iPad actually looks like a yellow legal pad.  Well, that's gone. They're gonna get rid of all those kinds of designs, making digital devices look like real world, and it's called "flat" and "minimalist." Jony Ive is the guy who designs all the hardware, the iPhones, the iPads, the MacBooks, the MacBook Pros and so forth, and everybody is really excited to see what he does with the operating system for the iPhone and the iPad.  I am, too. 

I'm not so much concerned about lack of skeuomorphism or what it looks like as the features they're gonna put into it.  There haven't been some things updated in six years.  The hardware people are looking forward to it. One of the things that there hasn't been an update on in three years is the top-of-the-line computer, the Mac Pro, which is the tower desktop used by video professionals in Hollywood and television.  It's still their fastest computer, but it's really not in real-world application.  Raw computing power it is, but in real-world application it's a turtle, it's a tortoise, and they haven't upgraded it in three years, and people don't understand why. 

There's a hope that there will be at least an indication what they're gonna do with that computer at this conference that they're having on Monday.  Nobody really knows, but there are rumors abound of a cheaper iPhone coming and a new Mac Pro that's gonna be announced, Retina screen, Mac Book Pros and this kind of thing. They do a magnificent job of keeping things secret, and they do a magnificent job of building up hype.  But I sent a friend of mine a note, and I was really frustrated. I was really down on Apple when I was on vacation. I sent a friend of mine a note about what I expected.  It was basically just making fun of some of the truisms that happen. 

A guy was asking what I thought about the new Mac Pro, which the moment they announce it, I'm gonna buy one.  I got rid of the old Mac.  It's a snail.  So I had to go out and get a replacement for it just to modernize, but I prefer to get a Mac Pro but they haven't upgraded, made me mad.  So a few predictions.  They will announce the new Mac Pro and they will say that it will be available later this fall.  They will not specify when "later this fall" means.  In September they will announce a configuration of the new Mac Pro that nobody wants and that it will go on sale in mid-October.  The configuration that everybody wants will go on sale in November.  Then on the November date that Apple says the real configuration everybody wants, it'll go on sale with a shipping time of three to four weeks. 

They will say that there are shortages due to unforeseen demand.  Units will actually ship in mid-December, but most deliveries will not happen until January.  Next iPhone 5S, 6, nobody knows, they think it's gonna be the 5S, it will be announced as available not Monday, but at some point they'll announce it to be available in September, with ship times in five to seven days.  The new operating system, iOS 7, will ship at the same time as the new iPhone in September.  In September, when it finally arrives, the iPhone 5S or 6, whatever they call it, will go on sale with ship times of five to seven days, but you won't be able to get one for three months because of unforeseen demand.  IOS 7 will ship in November, not the promised September.  It will ship in November after numerous design delays because too many bloggers think there's still too much skeuomorphism in the revamped flat design. 

The iPad 2 with Retina display will be announced as delayed until March of 2014 because of yield issues on the new display.  The iPhone 5 will be on time, the only thing that will be.  OS 10.9, the new Mac operating system, will be in Beta 19 in January with a promised ship date of February the 30th.  The iPhone 5S will be identical to the iPhone 5 except for a fingerprint sensor and a new color.  Everything else will be the same.  IOS 7 will look different, will add integration Flickr and Vimeo, big deal, I don't use either, but it will have no new features.  Tim Cook will say there are too many tradeoffs to modernize the OS right now. 

The iPhone 6, not the 5S, the iPhone 6, they will announce that at a special event next February.  Tim Cook will say that its highlight is a new 4.1-inch screen, one-tenth of an inch bigger than the iPhone 5 but with four times the pixels and two additional hours of battery life.  The phone will be no thicker than the American Express black card. When asked why Apple resists a five-inch screen, they will say that they refuse to make tradeoffs necessary to do that.  Get over it.  They will announce the iWatch with a five-inch screen that will be available in December of 2014.  Those are my predictions for what happens at Apple on Monday.  Yes, a five-inch screen on the iWatch.  They'll manage the tradeoffs for that, but not on the iPhone. 

BREAK TRANSCRIPT

RUSH:  I told Kathryn that we ought to do something with Two If By Tea like Apple does.  We ought to announce a new flavor and then not make it available.  We put it on sale and say we will accept orders, but sorry, we don't have it.  And you won't be able to get it for at least a month, maybe six weeks.  There's so much demand for our new flavor that nobody can get it.  There's so much demand we cannot fulfill demand, and create the impression here that we just can't manufacture enough to meet the demand, and Kathryn, she immediately rejected the idea.  I was just teasing, but she immediately rejected the idea.  She runs the tea company.  I mean, she runs it.  She is the CEO of it.

END TRANSCRIPT

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