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Carville: Hillary's Inevitable and GOP Extinct If It Loses

BEGIN TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: Now to the serious stuff. The Serpent Head, otherwise known as James Carville, says that the GOP must win the presidency in the 2016 or it'll go instinct.  It was on ABC's This Week during the superstar roundtable.  George Stephanopoulos, who used to work with Carville at the Clinton campaign -- (laughing) -- and now they're both journalists.  Ahem.  Well, one's a commentator -- about the 2016 race, and Stephanopoulos said, "James, you actually think that probability or electability is gonna be the number one issue?"  When is it not?  When is electability not an issue?  When is probability not an issue?  These people recycle everything.  In 25 years you see a lot. 

So the questions are repeating themselves and the answers repeat themselves, but nevertheless -- (pounding table) Oh, I'm gonna try not to... I know that is highly irritating.  I'm going to try back off on that habit here of banging the table.  (interruption)  What?  I don't know if Cavett's still getting electroshock therapy.  How would I know that?  Why are you asking me?  I don't care.  Was he ever?  Here is Carville answering the question from Stephanopoulos, "You actually think the probability or electability is gonna be the number one issue?"

CARVILLE:  Gonna be the dominant issue.  Fast forward to January 2016.  The most likely, not the only scenario, is Hillary Clinton is the presumptive democratic nominee. Everybody’s going to have a poll showing how they fare in the general election against Hillary. They’re not going to not nominate somebody because of Common Core. Trust me, the party knows, and I use this word advisedly, that if it loses the 2016 presidential election, the Republican Party as we know it today will be extinct.  This will be the sixth out of seventh election they’ve lost the popular vote. The Republicans want to win this. They will do -- that's gonna be the biggest issue in January 2016.  I can beat Hillary Clinton.

RUSH:  Okay.  So James Carville says that if the Republican Party loses in 2016 it's gonna be extinct.  And he's assuming here that, like everybody else on the left is, that Hillary is going to be the nominee. And therefore what he's saying is that the Republicans don't want to go extinct.  I know some of you think they already are and it's debatable.  But regardless, Carville says that they're not gonna want to go extinct and therefore whoever wins the nomination will be the one who convinces the most people that they can beat Hillary.  Now, is Carville being honest or is he playing a trick?  'Cause I'll tell you, if you had a dollar for every time the Democrats threw out this kind of scare tactic, you would be wealthy. 

What do they tell us?  They say, "If you guys don't win the independents, you're not gonna win anything.  And if you criticize us, you're gonna lose the independents.  If you criticize Obama the independents are gonna go running back to the Democrats, so you can't criticize Obama."  So the Republicans don't criticize Obama, don't want to lose the independents, thereby fall for the trick. 

Now here comes the Hillary trick.  This trick was played in 2007 before Obama surfaced.  "You better come up with somebody who can beat Hillary, 'cause if you don't come up with somebody that can beat Hillary, you don't have a prayer.  If you can't beat Hillary, you can't win the White House."  So they're recycling this and the odds are the Republicans are gonna listen to it.  The Republican consultant class, hell, everybody I know is already scared to death that Hillary is the nominee.  It's amazing.  It's a repeat of 2007-2008 before Obama surfaced.

I talk with people routinely and I can't tell you -- well, I can tell you.  I'm using an expression.  I had a big weekend with people at my house one spring, I forget what year, 2006, 2007, and it was all about the paranoia everybody had about Hillary Clinton.  One guy said, "I tell you right now, as we're sitting here, there is a 75 to 80% chance that Hillary Clinton is gonna be the next president of the United States."  The person was scared to death that that was gonna happen.  It was a very influential person that said this and a lot of people the gathering agreed with it and started chiming in, and it never changes. 

Now we're back to the same thing.  If Hillary gets the nomination, we don't have a prayer.  Meanwhile, what's the reality?  She didn't even get the nomination in 2008.  All it took was an unknown African-American, relatively unknown, to come out of nowhere and the powers that be in the Democrat Party dropped her like a hot potato.  And 2008, don't forget, that was hers. By silent previous agreement, that was hers, a payback for everything she had done, every sacrifice that she had made starting with moving to Arkansas and giving up her own life while melding hers with Slick Willie's. And then Slick Willie is out doing what he's doing, and she stands by him and allows him to be the philanderer-in-chief and all that. She defends him, blames it on conservatives.

She made his presidency possible. She made him saying in office possible. They gave her health care. She botched that, but nevertheless, despite the fact that everything they gave her politically she made a mess of -- and she made a mess of Benghazi. She made a mess of secretary of state, and yet people on our side seemingly are scared to death.  Now, I know some people are simply mindful of the way the Clintons manipulated everything in the nineties, and given that they did it once they can do it again. They never forget how they got away with things. It means they can get away with anything. But look at what happened.  The reality is that the first chance that the Democrats had to renege on their promise to her, they did.  For a fairytale! 

Now, I tell you, there's a story in the Stack here, I hadn't even planned on mentioning this today.  I put it on the bottom when I'm going through the prep 'cause, ah, never gonna get to this. But we do improv here.  And so Bernie Sanders, the socialist senator from Connecticut is toying with the idea of seeking the presidential nomination, Democrat Party. Not because he expects to win it, but because Hillary isn't liberal enough. He's gonna take that campaign and he's gonna take the party to the left, gonna go full-fledged, undisguised socialism. He's gonna drag Hillary there if she wants to win.  So he's gonna play the role of Obama. Well, I mean he's got a little problem in playing the role of Obama, age and race.  But my point is there will be other people that are gonna want this besides Hillary. 

BREAK TRANSCRIPT

RUSH:  One more audio sound bite here before we move on.  This is in conjunction with the James Carville bite that the Republicans -- if they don't win in 2016, they're extinct.  So let's go to the guy who defines what it is to be a Republican political consultant.  His name is Mike Murphy, and if you want to know what the consultant class thinks in the Republican Party, this is the guy. 

He was on Meet the Press roundtable with David Gregory.  He said, "You know, there has been a lot of talk this week about Jeb Bush, his comments about illegal immigrants committing a crime that's an act of love.  There's lot of focus on whether, A, does he really want to do this; two, is he gonna be eaten alive in a primary process?  What is your read on all of this, Mike?"

MURPHY:  I was proud of him, regardless of if he runs. Because I believe that leadership has been replaced in American politics by marketing.  We micro-target, micro-pander. "Let's focus group it, figure out how to win, you know, this, win that," and we've -- we've lost sight of politicians who tell you what they think is right. They make sure an argument for it, and then you figure it out.  That's who Jeb Bush is.  He's not a typical, weather-vane kind of guy.  So, if -- if he runs, that's what you're gonna go.  I think it's what the country's looking for, but we'll see what happens.

RUSH:  So the Republican consultant class -- I mean, he doesn't speak for every one of 'em 'cause not every one of 'em is gonna get hired by the same guy. But they do hold various things in common, such as, "You've gotta win the independents or you don't win anything," and, "You can't criticize Democrats!  We should cross the aisle, work with."  They all believe that.  Problematically, but they do.  But here's Murphy saying, "Oh, Bush is the guy! You know, Bush he doesn't market. He doesn't poll test or focus group test.  He tells you what he thinks, he leads, and he tries to persuade you.  I think these two sound bites go together, this one and Carville saying, "In 2016, Republicans lose or they're extinct."

The Republicans probably think that, and therefore think Jeb is their answer.

END TRANSCRIPT

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