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If Trump Wins Florida and Ohio, It'll Be Trump vs. Cruz -- And It Won't Be Over

BEGIN TRANSCRIPT

RUSH:  Hey, hey, hey, how you doing, folks?  It's great to be here chomping at the bit all day yesterday for this moment in time to arrive.  That's right, at the beginning of yet another excursion into broadcast excellence hosted by me, Rush Limbaugh.  We're here at 800-282-2882.  The e-mail address, ElRushbo@eibnet.com

I'm just gonna give a brief overview of some things here and then as the program unfolds we'll get into it in great detail.  The primaries tomorrow, do not overlook Illinois and Missouri.  They are going to be important, but as far as Florida and Ohio are concerned, the polling data now has Marco Rubio in third place. The latest CBS poll, Rubio in third place in Florida. 

Trump has canceled an appearance that was scheduled for tonight at Trump Doral down in Miami and instead has scheduled an event for Youngstown, Ohio.  That's because there are two polls on Ohio out there, and one of them Kasich is ahead by six, and in another they are tied 33-33.  My preference is that Trump win Florida and Ohio. 

Have you heard what Kasich did today?  I'm gonna tell you what's happening here, folks.  Kasich has come out full-throated, 100 percent for amnesty.  He is talking like Jeb Bush talks about amnesty and the illegal immigrants as gifts from God or some such thing.  And he has made it clear.  What's going on here, the establishment has one last great hope, and that's Kasich winning in Ohio and they're sending Kasich out there, or maybe he's doing it on his own, but he is full-throated, promising amnesty in 100 days, if he's elected president, which he's not gonna be.  But if he's elected president within the first hundred days we're gonna get comprehensive immigration reform, amnesty. 

The establishment is lining up behind him.  The reason is obvious.  If Kasich wins Ohio, which is what the smart money thinks is gonna happen now, that's why Kasich's gone all-in on amnesty, which I think could kill it, frankly, plus wait 'til Ohioans find out he voted for NAFTA.  Trade deals are one of Trump's big strong suits and Trump's been pounding that in his trips to Ohio.  Anyway, by going all-in for amnesty with the support of the establishment, if Kasich wins Ohio, and the smart money says he will, that means the establishment could run around on Wednesday saying, "See?  See?  The mainstream Republican Party position is for comprehensive immigration reform, and they will use that however they use that all the way from here until the convention in Cleveland in July." 

Now, even if Kasich wins Ohio, he's mathematically eliminated from winning the nomination in the primaries.  He cannot get the 1,237 even if he wins Ohio.  If he loses it, it's not even close.  If he wins, I mean, he'd have to do something impossible like win 75% of all the delegates remaining throughout all of the states.  But that doesn't matter.  He's gonna stay in.  I think if he loses Ohio he's gonna stay in, and he's going to stay in because the last great hope that the establishment has is for a contested convention. 

Now, I don't mean to imply that Kasich's said something brand-new about amnesty; he hasn't denied it.  He's still all-in on the promise and on the subject.  The most recent reporting on Kasich is some weeks ago, but it's been highlighted here today as that's one of the things that he has been campaigning on and making a big deal of.  So if you want this to be a two-man race -- because if you look at all of this polling data, I mean, here's the way to look at this.  Look at -- pick Florida, pick Ohio, I don't care which.  You've got Trump at whatever number he's at, and then everybody else equals vastly greater than Trump, everybody combined. 

Now, the theory is that a majority of votes that are currently for Cruz, for Rubio, for Kasich, a majority would go to Cruz.  Not all of them.  Some would go to Trump, but you would have to say by common sense not a majority or they'd already be with Trump.  So within the Republican primary voting sector there would appear to be a greater number of people opposed to Trump than for him, but it's never going to manifest itself if Kasich and Rubio -- it's hard to say what Rubio, I mean Rubio could stay in, too.  I don't mean to leave him out of the conversation, but Rubio is now targeted to come in third place in his own state. 

So Kasich seems to be the focus here.  And I don't think he's going to get out no matter what happens. If he wins Ohio he's definitely not gonna get out.  But I think if he loses it, he will probably stay in, too, but it would be a much tougher sell.  Now, let's go further.  I'm going to put some things out there for you to think about.  Yeah, yeah, yeah, I'm gonna get to the violence business.  That's not hard to analyze.  I mean, everybody's getting that wrong, and it's being led by the Drive-Bys and, sadly, some Republicans.  But, yeah, we'll get to it.  Just hang in there, be tough.  Be patient.  Can't do it all in the first monologue segment. 

The Cruz people really believe they can get to 1,237.  But if they can't they really believe they can, if things fall right, they can end up with more delegates than Trump.  So they believe they can go into Cleveland with a greater number of delegates than Trump has but still not enough to get 1,237, in which case they would argue that they should be the nominee because they have more delegates and more votes than anybody else, and to deny them would cause chaos.  And Trump will say the same thing if he doesn't get to 1,237.  But the GOP rules committee has yet to meet.  There's another rules meeting coming up in April where they can change, do anything they want. 

So we're by no means over this thing.  And that's gonna be something that I think everybody needs to keep in mind after tomorrow.  There are going to be powerful forces in all media that will attempt to convince as many people as possible that it's over after tomorrow.  I'm talking about on the Republican side, that it's all over but the shouting, particularly if Trump wins Florida and Ohio, the drumbeat's going to be that it's over.  But it isn't going to be over. 

There are still a lot of states yet to come. There's still a lot of voting yet to be done, and it will not be over after tomorrow.  And that's gonna be something I think the Cruz people are gonna be fighting. Regardless what happens in Ohio, whether Kasich wins it or not, the idea that the whole thing is over... In fact, here's the way to look at it. If Trump does pull Ohio out and wins Florida as well, they're really... The Trump people are gonna be leading the charge. "It's over; that's it.  "It might be better," they'll say. "Maybe just get out let's unify now. 

"Let's start the long process of unifying."  Cruz will not get out, because it's in Cruz's best interests for Trump to win Florida and Ohio.  It's in Cruz's best interests for Kasich to lose and to have no reason to stay in.  If Kasich wins Ohio, there's a reason to stay in.  There really isn't, other than to take it all the way out to a contested convention. Why, in Kasich's mind, he could be the chosen one if the Republican convention doesn't want either trump or Cruz.  And all of that hinges on number getting to 1,237. 

So Kasich... The thrust of Trump's campaign is that Kasich voted for NAFTA, very much in support.  Trade deals have become almost item number one on Trump appearances.  It's actually kind of interesting, I mean, to watch all this shake out. You follow Trump's appearances and look at his talking points from state to state to state. They don't vary much, but these trade deals are right at the top.  And they get a lion's share of the reaction from Trump's crowds.  So the Republican establishment -- the entire Washington establishment -- is, I think, facing an awakening. 

I don't think they realize just how deeply rooted and widely believed it is that these trade deals have destroyed the American middle class are.  I think they thought there was, you know, the usual anti-NAFTA crowd out there. They're thought of as a bunch of conspiracy kooks, but they've never been considered to be a significant number of both Republican and Democrat voters, and apparently that's not the case.  There's a significant number of people supporting Trump.  You can even make the case, I think, that Trump and Crazy Bernie's crowds really are one thing more powerfully than they are either in support of Bernie or Trump.

And that is they're anti-establishment.  I think it's huge, the number of Americans livid with Washington for years, folks, not just the last four, five, seven, eight, 10.  I think it's for decades. I think tracing all the way back to the nineties, there was an increasing -- 'cause if you look at the middle class, it has not gotten better.  It hasn't gotten better economically.  Wages have not increased significantly.  I've been through this drill before.  You can see what happened. What has happened to the college education?

It was the one way out. The one supposedly as-close-to-a-guarantee-as-anything-can-be step up the ladder of success, has become a weight or a shackle because of the debt you incur in getting one.  So even that -- and who runs the colleges and who runs the banks and who runs the loan programs and who sets the tuition?  It's the establishment guys.  And many in the middle class think that there's been an active... Not conspiracy, I don't think. There probably has been one, but the word can connote some things I don't intend it to. 

But there has been an active effort by people, they believe, to keep them from being able to improve themselves economically in their lives and they've just had it, because they see all kinds of wealth. They saw all kinds of wealth.  I mean, they don't understand. Every hedge fund guy is a multibillionaire.  How does that work?  They don't understand it.  It doesn't make any sense to them. How does that work?  Why is a hedge fund guy automatically a billionaire?  Why do the hedge fund guys make $12 billion, $10 billion, $2 billion, and not $500,000?  Where's all this money coming from?  The banks get bailed out when the banks screw up their own businesses. 

They don't get bailed out.  So I think the anger's deep, and it's sustained, and it's being tapped into expertly by Trump.  But it does not, apparently, represent a majority of Republican primary voters.  It's just the most energized and the most animated.  The Cruz people also have something else to be concerned about, I think. I could be all wet on this.  If the race piddles itself down to we've got two-man race, Trump and Cruz, I think the Cruz campaign's a little concerned that endorsements for them by some in the establishment could hurt them with their voters.  For example, if you're...

What do you think of this, Snerdley?  Let's say you're an all-in Cruz voter, and Kasich ends up not continuing after tomorrow, and gets down to a two-man race. It's basically Trump and Cruz, and here comes, say, Lindsey Graham endorsing Cruz.  I mean, he's an establishment guy.  Cruz people will say, "Oh no! That's not what we want! Oh no! Please, wait, we don't need it right now."  Then let's say... Oh, pick a name.  Any elected Republican name that's considered to be establishment. Mitch McConnell would never do it, but imagine if he did. 

The Cruz people have to be worried that that could taint their own voters.  So this is gonna be a big week for the Cruz campaign to get through because there's gonna be all kinds of misinformation about it.  And the leading bit of misinformation is going to be that -- whatever happens tomorrow, Wednesday, the news is going to be that -- it's, for all intents and purposes, over. And the Cruz campaign is not going anywhere, and they're not quitting.

They do not think it's over -- and, in fact, they have a pathway to victory, one of two ways.  Kasich is the wild card, depending on what happens in Ohio, and Trump is going to do whatever he can to win there. As I say, he's canceling an appearance in Florida tonight, rescheduling it for one in Youngstown, where he's gonna hammer Kasich.  I think Trump could put himself over the top if he would just use my line.  Just say that he's got a job for Kasich, postmaster general, and everybody will be happy.

BREAK TRANSCRIPT

RUSH:  Let's review so that we keep things in perspective and focused here.  In Florida, CBS News/Battleground Tracker Polls.  Here we go, Florida: "Trump at 24, Cruz 24, Rubio 21.  In the CBS poll, Rubio is in third place in Florida.  However, Rubio people in Florida say, "Ah, ah, ah, ah, ah.  There's a whole bunch of early voting that's going on down here, 1.1 million early votes, and we could get the lion's share of those. So don't rule us out here." Yesterday in Iowa there are two different polls. There's Quinnipiac and a Monmouth poll. 

In one of the polls, Trump and Kasich are tied, and in another one Kasich is up by six.  Both Trump and Cruz have made adjustments to their schedules and are doing events in Ohio today that were not originally planned.  Trump had an event planned for Trump Dural down in Miami that he has canceled and instead going to Youngstown.  Cruz was going to be spend a large part of the day in North Carolina, which is very... You know, North Carolina, Illinois, and Missouri are also big.  They're not getting talked about a lot.

But you keep an eye on Illinois and Missouri as the results get reported tomorrow, too.  Because Florida's pretty much a known quantity.  Ohio?  I'll tell you why Ohio is the focus and I'll tell you why Cruz and Trump are going back there.  They want Kasich out of the race.  Trump wants to win Ohio.  Trump thinks if he wins Ohio and wins Florida, that that is, for all intents and purposes, it; that he can create a narrative that it's over. It's all over but the shouting, that nobody else has a prayer of getting anywhere near 1,237.

So he wants Kasich out.  Cruz wants Kasich out for different reason.  If Kasich stays... See, Kasich -- no matter if he wins Ohio or loses it -- is mathematically eliminated.  And I realize there are a lot of you in Ohio who like your governor, and I realize many of you in Ohio like Kasich.  But the fact of the matter is that if he wins or loses, he's mathematically eliminated, particularly if he loses. But either way, it's history.  But if he wins, he's gonna stay in.  If he wins, he's going to stay in because he wants a contested convention. 

He doesn't want anybody getting to 1,237 before they get to Cleveland and the convention because he wants to be able to benefit from a contested convention.  This may be a (oh, what would you call it?) a fusion candidate, somebody that they go to when none of the other two can put together a majority.  Whatever. It's a long shot -- and plus, just screwing things up.  If he could do that, it's a feather in his cap, history books, all that. He'd love to do it.  Cruz wants him out because, as far as the Cruz campaign's concerned, their biggest challenge...

By the way, Cruz won a couple other primaries over the weekend.  He won Wyoming and got nine delegates. Trump got one.  And there was one other place.  Colorado.  Was it Colorado?  They were both congressional district primaries, and they were small.  They weren't covered.  Anyway, Cruz won both of them.  So he's creeping up.  He's like 90 delegates behind Trump.  The biggest objective the Cruz campaign has is fighting the narrative that it's over.  This is going to be a very big week for the Cruz campaign, given that perception is reality in politics.

The Trump people are gonna be doing everything they can to suggest it's over either way. If Trump wins only Florida of Florida and Ohio...  Remember, there's four or five states tomorrow, but the big ones that everybody's talking about are Florida and Ohio.  So if Trump wins Florida, he and his allies in the media are gonna be trying to make the case that it's all over but the shouting.  If Trump wins both -- which is what Cruz wants, by the way.  This is the key.  Cruz needs Trump to win both to get rid of Kasich. 

That solidifies all of the anti-Trump support around Cruz and sets up a two-man race.  The Cruz people really believe that they can win a plurality of delegates in a two-man race if Kasich gets out.  But Kasich has to lose Ohio.  And that means Trump has to win it because there's no way Cruz is going to.  See, the biggest thing the Cruz people have to fight is the perception that it's over, which will be the reporting starting late Tuesday night and all day into Wednesday.  So this is gonna be a big week for them to get through, because it will not be over.

But everybody on the Trump side and a lot of other media will be trying to say that it is.  So it's interesting the way things are shaping up here, and with both Trump and Cruz rescheduling events to go into Ohio, they both have the same interests there: Kasich losing.  (interruption) That's right. That's right. Marco won one.  It was Wyoming.  It was... No, no.  I mentioned Wyoming.  What's the second one? (interruption) Oh, that's right.  And that's where... Oh, yeah, Marco swept Washington, DC. 

Well, that's where the establishment guys are supposed to do well: In Washington.  Just kidding. You know, it's a shame.  I said this Friday.  I said, "It's a shame about Rubio.  If it weren't for that Gang of Eight, he would be perceived and looked at entirely differently.  That Gang of Eight thing did so much damage. I mean, justifiably, but nevertheless it did so much damage.  

BREAK TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: I gotta get Glenn in here from Youngstown, Ohio, before we have to go today.  Hi, Glenn.  Welcome to the program.

CALLER:  Hi, Rush.  A longtime listener and first-time caller.

RUSH:  Thank you, sir.

CALLER:  Okay.  My comment was, you know, this Kasich? I wouldn't walk across the street to one of his rallies.  I mean, there's just no enthusiasm there.

RUSH:  Wait a minute.  He's your governor.

CALLER:  Yeah.  I realize, and I voted for him for governor, but, to be honest with you, they had a rally in Hanoverton, Ohio, and they set up a tent outside that would hold about 500 people.  Well, they only had 400 people in the tent.  There's just nothing there.  Nobody is coming to his rallies, that I've seen, on TV.

RUSH:  Well, he just had one with Mitt Romney.  He just had... Mitt Romney's out there speaking at rallies with Kasich.

CALLER:  You know, I supported Mitt, and I'm really ashamed of him coming out against the --

RUSH:  Has not been helpful.  But, you know, look, I know what you're saying. I shouldn't say this 'cause people are gonna misunderstand it.  But, you know, I watch Governor Kasich in these rallies, and he talks about all the great things that he's done in Ohio and all the great things that are happening there, and I'm wondering: Why isn't everybody moving there?  Don't misunderstand.  But he's telling stories about this overwhelming success and revitalizing communities and getting rid of rotten culture and whatever else and all this job creation and stuff.  I mean, it sounds like utopia. 

I'm out of time, folks.  I gotta go but we'll wrap it up here in just a second.

END TRANSCRIPT

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