{"id":14786,"date":"2012-08-23T18:11:36","date_gmt":"2012-08-23T18:11:36","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2012-08-23T18:11:36","modified_gmt":"2012-08-23T18:11:36","slug":"analysis_that_hasn_t_missed_since_1980_predicts_romney_will_win_big","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rushlimbaugh.com\/daily\/2012\/08\/23\/analysis_that_hasn_t_missed_since_1980_predicts_romney_will_win_big\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysis That Hasn\u2019t Missed Since 1980 Predicts Romney Will Win Big"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>RUSH: &#8220;A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every US president since 1980,&#8221; they\u2019ve never missed, &#8220;forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney,&#8221; and he will win 320 electoral votes. It\u2019s a University of Colorado analysis. It\u2019s not a poll. It\u2019s an &#8220;analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every US president since 1980,&#8221; and they haven\u2019t missed.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The key is the economy, say political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors. &#8220;&#8216;Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,\u2019 said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" id=\"eZObject_66108\" class=\"aligncenter\" align=\"middle\" src=\"https:\/\/live-rush-limbaugh.pantheonsite.io\/wp-content\/uploads\/Romney585_2.jpg\"\/><\/p>\n<p>&#8220;According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9% of the popular vote to Obama\u2019s 47.1%, when considering only the two major political parties.&#8221; Now, that doesn\u2019t factor a third party or minuscule write-ins. They just look at the two primary candidates.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;&#8216;For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,\u2019 said Berry. &#8216;The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office.'&#8221; I don\u2019t know where he gets that, but regardless, this guy says: &#8220;What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it\u2019s the former [in relative terms], the president may receive credit for the economy\u2019s trajectory and win a second term.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;In the latter case [absolute terms], Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.&#8221; Now, again: &#8220;Their model correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992. It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>They predicted that.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;While many forecast models are based on the popular vote, the Electoral College model developed by Bickers and Berry is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. In addition to state and national unemployment rates, [these guys] looked at per capita income, which indicates the extent to which people have more or less disposable income. Research shows that these two factors affect the major parties differently:<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates while Republicans are held more responsible for per capita income.&#8221; So you can see how they arrive at their conclusion. They haven\u2019t missed since 1980. They are predicting that Romney will win 320 electoral votes. To throw myself in here, this does not surprise me. You know me. I haven\u2019t held back. I don\u2019t have any scientific basis for my belief; just my gut. And I will admit I make a lot of assumptions.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" id=\"eZObject_66110\" class=\"alignright\" align=\"right\" src=\"https:\/\/live-rush-limbaugh.pantheonsite.io\/wp-content\/uploads\/RomneyRepeal_large.jpg\"\/><BR\/>I assume that a majority of the country is opposed to what\u2019s happening.<\/line><\/p>\n<p>I assume a majority of the country does not want to be a bunch of takers.<\/p>\n<p>I know that many of you disagree with me, but these guys say, &#8220;In 2012, &#8216;What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states&#8230;&#8221; These guys predict, based on their data that hasn\u2019t missed since 1980, that he will lose North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;In Colorado, which went for Obama in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 51.9% of the vote to Obama\u2019s 48.1%,&#8221; but it\u2019s only right to mention this: &#8220;The authors also provided caveats. Factors they said may affect their prediction include the timeframe of the economic data used in the study and close tallies in certain states. The current data was taken five months in advance of the Nov. 6 election and they plan to update it with more current economic data in September.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Ah, we will eagerly anticipate that report.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;A second factor is that states very close to a 50-50 split may fall in an unexpected direction.&#8221; Let\u2019s assume for the fun of it that these guys are right. I want you to imagine Election Day plus one, the day after the election, if the Democrats lose North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. If that happens, there is going to be hell to pay like you haven\u2019t seen. If that happens, no way they can charge fraud. It won\u2019t stop \u2019em, maybe. But, if that happens, you are going to see one of the biggest soul searches you\u2019ve ever seen.<\/p>\n<p>For a while.<\/p>\n<p>And then it won\u2019t take \u2019em long to get back on track of blaming the stupidity of the voters, which is something that they carry with them each and every day, and that is contempt for average people.<\/p>\n<p>Now, the Washington Times, a Dave Boyer story: &#8220;Poll Shows Romney Closing Gap with Obama in the Swing States &#8212; As Republicans head to Tampa, Fla., to nominate <a view=\"line\" href=\"https:\/\/live-rush-limbaugh.pantheonsite.io\/?p=14789\">Mitt Romney <\/a>for president, the contest with President Obama is narrowing in the 10 battleground states that likely will decide the election. Since Aug. 1, Mr. Romney has gained ground in eight of those states, and two of them &#8212; Wisconsin and Michigan &#8212; are now considered too close to call by some pollsters.<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/live-rush-limbaugh.pantheonsite.io\/?page_id=37804\"><img decoding=\"async\" id=\"eZObject_66109\" class=\"alignright\" align=\"right\" src=\"https:\/\/live-rush-limbaugh.pantheonsite.io\/wp-content\/uploads\/000MostDangerousMan.jpg\"\/><\/a>&#8220;[Obama] has expanded his lead only in New Hampshire&#8230;&#8221; Everywhere else, it\u2019s tightening, significantly so. And it\u2019s tightening in polls that have the far-out-of-reality weighted Democrat sample. The AP poll is the latest, the AP-GfK poll. In that poll, Obama was up ten points in May or June. He\u2019s now up four, losing ground rapidly. But it\u2019s a poll that has an outsized Democrat sample. I saw an analysis of this poll. I mean, it\u2019s cooked. This latest AP poll with GfK is cooked.<\/p>\n<p>If this poll had an accurate party sample that reflected turnout on Election Day 2008, Obama would be a point down in the latest AP poll. &#8220;&#8216;What we\u00c2\u2019re seeing now is the tightening of the race that everyone predicted, which makes sense given the economy,\u2019 said Jason Johnson, associate professor of political science at Hiram College in northeastern Ohio. &#8216;It has to do with people\u00c2\u2019s frustration with Obama rather than an increased appreciation of Romney.'&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Well, duh!<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s not a surprise, either.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s exactly what I thought would be the case. I thought this was always gonna be a referendum on Obama. And to the extent that <a view=\"line\" href=\"https:\/\/live-rush-limbaugh.pantheonsite.io\/?p=14863\">Romney and Ryan<\/a> can make themselves likable, then that\u2019s icing on the cake. But this always was gonna be a referendum on Obama. It still is gonna be a referendum. I don\u2019t care what the Obama campaign is trying to say. I don\u2019t care what the Drive-By Media is trying to say and how they try to slant this and how they try to portray it.<\/p>\n<p>This is gonna be a referendum on Obama.<\/p>\n<p>He is not the likable guy he was.<\/p>\n<p>I don\u2019t care what anybody says, folks. He does not have that aura that he had in 2008. It\u2019s blown. His cover is blown wide open and he is seen to be human and incompetent at that. He puts his pants on one leg at a time just like every other guy, and there\u2019s nothing messianic here. &#8220;Hope and Change&#8221; are gone. And don\u2019t forget the poll of the toddlers, the 18 to 29 year olds. They\u2019re claiming that they are so upset that they\u2019re gonna turn out in record numbers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>RUSH: &#8220;A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every US president since 1980,&#8221; they\u2019ve never missed, &#8220;forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney,&#8221; and he will win 320 electoral votes. It\u2019s a University of Colorado analysis. It\u2019s not a poll. It\u2019s an &#8220;analysis of state-by-state [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14786","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Analysis That Hasn&#039;t Missed Since 1980 Predicts Romney Will Win Big - The Rush Limbaugh Show<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/live-rush-limbaugh.pantheonsite.io\/daily\/2012\/08\/23\/analysis_that_hasn_t_missed_since_1980_predicts_romney_will_win_big\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Analysis That Hasn&#039;t Missed Since 1980 Predicts Romney Will Win Big - The Rush Limbaugh Show\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"RUSH: &#8220;A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every US president since 1980,&#8221; they\u2019ve never missed, &#8220;forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney,&#8221; and he will win 320 electoral votes. 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