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But to the extent that polling is used to shape opinion rather than reflect it, well, then that\u2019s a different matter. If you understand that the left uses polling to move opinion, to shape it rather than reflect it, well, then you take it for what it is, i.e., a news story, which is how polling data is used. Have you noticed how much breaking news is a poll result now?<\/p>\n
So this from the NBC\/Wall Street Journal. This poll, it says, “casts a more realistic light on Democrats\u2019 chances. There is little doubt that Trump hatred is giving the Democrats an edge in voter intensity. But the numbers that would signal a blue wave just aren\u2019t there,” in this NBC\/Wall Street Journal poll. “And against all odds, the president\u2019s approval numbers are as high now as they have been at any time since he was inaugurated.”<\/p>\n
And the Rasmussen poll<\/a>, Trump is up another point to 51%. And the polling data on the economy and the tax cuts and who gets credit, that\u2019s also trending in Trump\u2019s direction. So by the measurements the Drive-By Media, the Democrats themselves use, the evidence of a blue wave just isn\u2019t there yet. However, they don\u2019t know that. If you watch the news, read the news, whatever you do to get the news, when they talk about 2018, it\u2019s over. The Democrats are gonna win and win big, they\u2019re already planning impeachment. You know it. You\u2019ve been treated to it for months now.<\/p>\n In the NBC\/Wall Street Journal poll,<\/a> “Democrats enjoy a 7-point advantage in congressional preference, with 47 percent of voters wanting a Democratic-controlled Congress, and with 40 percent preferring a GOP-controlled Congress.” Now, you might say, “Rush, how can you say we\u2019re winning? We\u2019re down seven points.” Yeah, but in March the Democrats had a 10 point edge, 50 to 40. And it was the 15 point edge in January, December, toward the end of the year.<\/p>\n “In past wave cycles for Democrats \u2014 in 2006 and 2008 \u2014 the NBC\/WSJ poll typically found Democrats with a solid double-digit lead in congressional preference.” They\u2019re down now to seven points. That\u2019s getting close to the margin of error. “But the current poll shows Democrats with a significant advantage in enthusiasm, with 66 percent of Democrats expressing a high level of interest (either a 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale) in November\u2019s elections, versus 49 percent for Republicans.”<\/p>\n So in this they are saying that the intensity, the motivation, the desire to get out there and vote, nine or 10 points on a scale of one to 10, 10 being the highest, 66% of Democrats are at a high level; 49% for Republicans. However, the intensity is also falling. The intensity is way down on the Democrat side. There is a psychological reason for this, and that is that the kind of intensity that the Democrats have been feeling, this deep, emotional rage is simply physiologically and emotionally not sustainable. They can\u2019t hold on to it for that long. It\u2019s already starting to peter out.<\/p>\n Now, that\u2019s not to say that Trump could do something that really ticks \u2019em off and revs \u2019em back up again. But what would that be? How much angrier can they get from where they have been? I think we have seen peak left-wing anger. And not to say they can\u2019t achieve it again, but we\u2019ve seen peak, and they\u2019re trending down. It\u2019s just hard to hold on to this kind of intensity. When you also look at real-world circumstances, primarily in the economy, people are seeing larger paychecks because of the tax cut. There are new jobs being created. There\u2019s a general uptick and trend in matters of the economy.<\/p>\n And of course Trump is a wild card. His approval numbers are as high as they have ever been, which doesn\u2019t match with all this negative hatred and intensity from the Democrats. Now, the Democrats are angry. There\u2019s no question they still are. I\u2019m not trying to erase that. But the trends are what you look at here, and their intensity as expressed in the NBC\/Wall Street Journal poll is declining. And the Republicans could be in trouble. They\u2019re gonna have to match the intensity. The Republicans are gonna have to do something to get people as intense or close to it as the Democrats, in terms of reasons for voting.<\/p>\n Now, what do you think some of those reasons might be? How could the Republicans do this, or how could Trump do this? Do you think it would serve Trump well to, during public appearances like this roundtable he\u2019s doing in Hialeah, Florida, today or any other campaign rally, do you think it would serve Trump well for him to tell people that he needs \u2019em to show up, that the Democrats are loaded for bear and we cannot beat \u2019em back unless you are just as enthusiastic and just as eager as you were two years ago?<\/p>\n I don\u2019t think it would hurt for Trump to do that. The media would cast that as desperate, and they would say that Trump is indicating here that he knows the Republicans are in trouble. So while the Democrat intensity is there, it\u2019s slipping a bit. But it\u2019s still pretty high. I do, however, maintain that the primary things that are gonna shape the election haven\u2019t yet happened. I mean, we\u2019re in the middle of April here.<\/p>\n Now, according to according to PJ Media writing about this, “[H]istory also holds a cautionary tale for Democrats. Parts of their coalition, especially the young, minorities, and single women, may tell pollsters…” and this is an annual thing. Well, it\u2019s every election this happens, this phenomena. Young people, minorities, single women, they tell the pollsters that they are fed up. They are ticked off and they can\u2019t wait to vote! They are so fired up! And the media dutifully writes the stories. You can make book on it.<\/p>\n We\u2019re talking about outside presidential elections. These are different turnout models. This has happened a lot of times, and it could be one of the significant things that prevents the Republicans from losing. I\u2019ll tell you, when I hear conventional wisdom of a blue wave and the Democrats running away with it and when everybody in the media is touting it, I automatically reject it simply because everybody else thinks it. Groupthink? Stay away from it if you can. Groupthink is the death of your brain.<\/p>\n Groupthink is the end of you having your own opinion. Groupthink is very seductive. Go along with what most people think? Yeah, that makes you part of the majority. That makes you part of the team. That makes you hip! The smart people know what\u2019s going on. The smart people think it\u2019s over for Trump. That\u2019s groupthink. Those are dead minds. Don\u2019t become one of them. Conventional wisdom is often wrong. It\u2019s incredible how wrong it is.<\/p>\n But whenever something becomes conventional wisdom, the smart thing to do is question it and oppose it. Always question groupthink. Groupthink should always be looked at suspiciously, \u2019cause it\u2019s pernicious. Here\u2019s the bottom line according to PJ Media. “[I]f Trump\u2019s approval is in the low 40s on Election Day, the GOP is probably toast. But if they\u2019re in the mid to upper 40s, Trump loyalists could tip the balance in some close races and keep the GOP in power.”<\/p>\n Now, you might read that as wishful thinking — and it may be on the part of the people writing this. I think Trump\u2019s approval numbers are higher than low forties or mid-forties. I don\u2019t think the current Drive-By Media and their polling units can still get that right, just like they couldn\u2019t get the 2016 election polling right if they tried.<\/p>\n BREAK TRANSCRIPT<\/p>\n RUSH: Scott in Sedona, Arizona. Great to have you, sir. How are you doing?<\/p>\n CALLER: Hey. Great, Rush. How are you doing? I\u2019ve been listening to you for years, and you\u2019ve been my great conservative teacher for ever since. (chuckles)<\/p>\n RUSH: Well, I appreciate it very much, sir.<\/p>\n CALLER: Yeah. I got a theory on this blue wave. It\u2019s not because the Democrats are gonna take over. It\u2019s the Republicans that have been back-stabbing Trump and the American people on everything of Trump\u2019s agenda for all this time, and they\u2019re not gettin\u2019 it through when they should be gettin\u2019 it through, so they\u2019re mad. They\u2019re gonna be mad at the Republicans and they\u2019re not gonna come out and vote for \u2019em.<\/p>\n RUSH: Wait a minute. I\u2019m confused. You think the Democrat blue wave is because of Republicans?<\/p>\n CALLER: Yeah, because they\u2019re not helping Trump. They keep back-stabbing Trump and the American people on Trump\u2019s agenda.<\/p>\n They\u2019re gonna report that there will be one just because they want one, just because they expect one. To them, it\u2019s common sense that the whole country would want to get rid of Trump. That\u2019s how the media thinks. That may be a bit of an exaggeration, but not much. As to the Republicans, I asked the director of the Office of Management and Budget, Mick Mulvaney. I saw him about a month ago. I said, “Are you concerned with all of these Republicans in the House, the committee chairmen who are retiring?”<\/p>\n He said, “No, not at all.”<\/p>\n I said, “Why not?”<\/p>\n He said, “Because they\u2019re term limited. Their time as chairmen is ending, and they don\u2019t want to go back to being just a regular member of the House.” After you\u2019ve had the power, the perks and all that of being committee chairman, you don\u2019t want to go back to just being a regular member of the House. It makes perfect sense that they would go because they\u2019re being term limited out.” Now, the media reports these resignations as Republicans thinking they\u2019re gonna lose.<\/p>\n “Republicans want out of there because it\u2019s gonna be a disaster and they don\u2019t want any part of it!” And that is… That may be the reason some of them are resigning, but most of them are resigning because they\u2019re term-limited. Now, the whole idea about Republicans not supporting the Trump agenda? It\u2019s a real thing, and it has been a problem. In fact, for most of the first year… If you haven\u2019t heard this, it\u2019s gonna tick you off. For most of the first year, Republican House and Senate reluctance to help Trump honestly was because they thought he was gonna be gone in six months.<\/p>\n They thought there was something for this collusion business. I kid you not. They thought that there was something that was going to be discovered that would jeopardize Trump\u2019s presidency. And because they thought that, they didn\u2019t want to do anything that tied themselves to it. Because as the year dragged on and we got into October and November — I\u2019m not exaggerating this — a bunch of them finally figured out that there is nothing here. And that\u2019s why tax reform happened. Tax reform happened, in large part, because, A, it was the right thing to do; it was needed economically.<\/p>\n And the second reason is because Republicans lost their fear that Trump was gonna be ousted. But it\u2019s fascinating to me that even though there has not been anything to this story, there has not been a shred of evidence… There has not been a single claim in that dossier, for example, verified or corroborated. Yet even the Republicans in Washington, a number of them, thought that Trump would not survive it. Such is the power to create groupthink and opinion inside the Beltway or inside the Washington establishment.<\/p>\n But once they figured out, once they concluded that Trump was not in peril because of the investigation, then they relaxed, and elements of the Trump agenda began to see some support. But that doesn\u2019t have anything to do with the blue wave and what the Democrats… If there wasn\u2019t a blue wave, the Democrats\/the media would be talking about it anyway. You know, everybody talks about 2006 and 2008. Now, those are midterm elections for George W. Bush… Well, the 2008 was a presidential race where Republicans lost big.<\/p>\n They also lost in 2006, \u2019cause that\u2019s in the midst of the media and the Democrats undermining Bush on every front with Bush not fighting back. But the midterms that I find more interesting are 2002, which we have discussed on previous occasions. In 2002 was the Wellstone memorial<\/a>, which was coming after the Florida recount, after 9\/11. The Democrats thought that they were gonna retake the House, and they were gonna get rid of Republicans. They were gonna retake the Senate. It was going to be a blowout — and they ended up losing seats.<\/p>\n The out-of-power party in the first midterm elections after a new president\u2019s elected, generally does clean up. Obama lost 60 seats in 2010, folks. The Tea Party midterms. I think it was 63 seats — and that was Obamacare and the spending and a number of things. So now the media\u2019s thinking the same thing\u2019s gonna happen here in 2018, two years after Trump. People hate Trump, they think. People despise Trump, feel like they\u2019ve made a mistake, and so the blue wave is gonna be 60-70 Democrat seats claimed.<\/p>\n But 2002 to me is a more interesting parallel, because we had the same circumstances back then coming out of 9\/11, a very unpopular president because of the Florida recount — he was hated and despised — and the Democrats all full of themselves and the media as well. Now, you\u2019ll note there\u2019s never a Republican wave forecast. We never hear about the big red wave. In 2010, the media was not warning us, talking about a big red wave. They were writing about potential significant Democrat losses.<\/p>\n But we never got the term “red wave,” \u2019cause it never enters the lexicon like we are getting now — and when they\u2019re all aboard and they\u2019re all on it and it becomes a conventional wisdom, immediately suspect it.<\/p>\n BREAK TRANSCRIPT<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.rushlimbaugh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/02\/Democrats-_-Convention-B.jpg\")
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You can probably remember, as I call your attention to it, all of the stories just in the last 10 years of elections. You remember all the stories of the youth vote and how if they showed up, it was over for the Republicans? Two to one Millennials support Democrats! Two to one Millennials hate Trump! Two to one this! It\u2019s every election, we hear from the Drive-By Media about how young people are loaded for bear — and then they don\u2019t show up in the numbers everybody expects. Same thing with minorities. Same thing with single women.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.rushlimbaugh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/TrumpVS-GOP.jpg\")
RUSH: Well, yeah. In certain places, to a certain extent, yeah. But that I don\u2019t think has anything to do with the blue wave, with the Democrats\u2019 intensity. I mean, the Democrats aren\u2019t sitting there saying, “Hey, man, we\u2019re gonna really roll! Look at these Republicans back-stabbing the guy.” They wouldn\u2019t care what the Republicans are doing. They still would be loaded for bear, and the media would still think… <\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.rushlimbaugh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/TrumpTaxWH1-e1513874326954.jpg\")
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And again, this is generic. When you add names to it, it changes, obviously. But this is the way the polling units ostensibly measure party support. And I\u2019m telling you, this is bad news for the Democrats because back in December when the first generic ballots results were touted, Democrats had a 15, and some polls 18-point lead in the generic ballot. That\u2019s when the media started going nuts about a blue wave. And now we\u2019re down to four points in the ABC\/Washington Post poll.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.rushlimbaugh.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/APP-040418-Trump-Boom-Economy-Finance-StocK-002.jpg\")
The results suggest that Trump is getting more credit for the economy, although it could be better, they say. Fifty-one percent of American voters said the economy was in good condition. Twenty-seven percent thought the economy was not so good. Twelve percent thought it was poor. The point of all this is, you know how we feel about polling here; you can do with it whatever you want. But the Democrats and the left run these polling units, and this data here does not reflect at all the accompanying reporting of a blue wave.<\/p>\n