{"id":282350,"date":"2018-08-17T16:07:00","date_gmt":"2018-08-17T20:07:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/admin.rushlimbaugh.com\/?p=282350"},"modified":"2018-08-18T13:10:21","modified_gmt":"2018-08-18T17:10:21","slug":"not-so-cocksure-nate-silver-says-75-chance-dems-win-house","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rushlimbaugh.com\/daily\/2018\/08\/17\/not-so-cocksure-nate-silver-says-75-chance-dems-win-house\/","title":{"rendered":"Not So Cocksure Now? Nate Silver Says 75% Chance Dems Win House"},"content":{"rendered":"

RUSH: Nate Silver. Since I mentioned it, let\u2019s go listen to it. We have three bites here. This is last night, FiveThirtyEight website<\/a>, politics podcast, Galen Druke asking the editor-in-chief, Nate Silver, about his forecast for the 2018 midterms. The question: “What odds does your forecast show for control of the House in this election?”<\/p>\n

SILVER: It gives Democrats a three-in-four chance of winning the House. It\u2019s in the Hillary Clinton zone. It\u2019s very similar actually. Part of the reason why we\u2019re saying like three-in-four and one-in-four for Republicans. If you play out this universe four times they win once on average based on information we have now. The situation is bad but it\u2019s not so bad as to be hopeless. Hopeless would be like one in 500. They have like an entirely reasonable shot that their voters turn out, and the political environment becomes a little more favorable for Republicans between now and November and Democrats just lose a lot of the toss-ups based local factors. It\u2019s not far-fetched to think the Republicans hold the House. With that said, you would rather be in the Democrats\u2019 position.<\/p>\n

RUSH: Okay. So what good is the 75 percent chance the Democrats win if you then say it\u2019s not far-fetched to think the Republicans could hold the House? How do those two go together? I\u2019ll tell you, because they said the same thing about Hillary winning, and look what happened. They\u2019re now not trusting their data. And the reason they\u2019re not trusting their data is because they still don\u2019t know the Trump voter.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

They still haven\u2019t taken the time to figure out who you are. They haven\u2019t taken the time to figure out what matters to you. They\u2019re still judging you and finding you as incompetent boobs. But just like the Papadopoulos truth, who you are is there to be learned. But they don\u2019t. So 75 percent chance, that becomes the headline, that\u2019s the big story, but the guy responsible for it then whispers, “Yeah, but, you know, it\u2019s not far-fetched to think the Republicans could hold the House.”<\/p>\n

Now, for what it\u2019s worth, Dick Morris thinks Republicans are gonna hold the House. I\u2019ll go through what his theory is \u2019cause I saved it. I had it for yesterday but I didn\u2019t get to it. I saved it. We\u2019ll go through that at some point before the program ends today. So the questioner here with Nate Silver, Galen Druke, “So how should people look at this? I mean, 75 percent chance the Democrats take the House. We have two and a half months \u2019til the election. How should people be looking at it?”<\/p>\n

SILVER: Again, I don\u2019t know any other way to put it, but between the various ways in which the forecast could be off, one way it could be off is that things look different in November than it does now.<\/p>\n

RUSH: Really?<\/p>\n

SILVER: Another way it could be off is if the polls are off in November.<\/p>\n

RUSH: Really?<\/p>\n

SILVER: You know, even a couple of points of Republicans beating their polls could have been very similar to 2016, yield a narrow win for them.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

RUSH: Really? It sounds like this guy\u2019s saying what I say. A poll in August doesn\u2019t tell you much about what\u2019s gonna happen in November. It\u2019s still entirely possible that the event or events that shape the election in November haven\u2019t even happened yet. It\u2019s still entirely possible. Do not doubt me on this.<\/p>\n

Now, having said that, let me hedge my bets. Democrat turnout in some of these blue states is off the charts, folks. It\u2019s undeniable. And I would not be doing my just job here with you if I were not to mention this. In Minnesota I took the Democrat Farm Labor state, big Democrat state, but the turnout there, I mean, it was I think the Democrats turned out twice as many people.<\/p>\n

The idea that they\u2019re ticked off, they\u2019re motivated and so forth, that happened to look like the case in Minnesota. Those are primary elections and so forth. They\u2019re not cross-party elections. It\u2019s different turnout nevertheless. But still these guys are hedging their bets. They are not, they are not what we call cocksure that the Democrats are gonna take the House. When they have to put name and reputation on the line, notice all the hedging here.<\/p>\n

Now, Kevin Bacon, the actor, is married to the actress Kyra Sedgwick. Kyra Sedgwick big claim to fame was a show I think on TNT called The Closer, which when she retired from it then became Major Crimes. And Kevin Bacon is a well-known actor and has a band and so forth and they are big Upper West Side leftists which, you know, it always disappoints me to find that out about people whose work I like. I can\u2019t help it. It just does.<\/p>\n

I mean, Kyra Sedgwick and The Closer was brilliant. Just fabulous. I mean, I\u2019ve never heard anybody be able to maintain a perfect Georgian Southern accent for eight seasons. And she\u2019s not from anywhere near Georgia. I mean, just flawless. So when you learn these people are wacko leftists it just disappoints you. Anyway, they\u2019re all concerned. And while Nate Silver is out there saying a 75 percent chance and the media saying big blue wave coming, it\u2019s in the bag, Kevin Bacon and Kyra Sedgwick have released a video begging liberals in blue states to go volunteer in places where midterm seats are at stake.<\/p>\n