{"id":3485,"date":"2016-05-05T16:37:52","date_gmt":"2016-05-05T16:37:52","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2017-07-06T10:16:42","modified_gmt":"2017-07-06T14:16:42","slug":"the_experts_are_stumped_by_trump","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rushlimbaugh.com\/daily\/2016\/05\/05\/the_experts_are_stumped_by_trump\/","title":{"rendered":"The Experts Are Stumped by Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Listen<\/a><\/p>\n

RUSH: Now, the conventional wisdom on Trump. There are two kinds. The two competing theories are Trump\u2019s toast already. “Trump doesn\u2019t have a prayer! Trump is gonna have an array of negative ads launched against him the like of which he\u2019s never seen. The Clintons have money, they have opposition research, and no matter how good Trump is, and no matter how good he is at ad-libbing and reacting, he hasn\u2019t the slightest idea. He\u2019s never, ever, faced whatever the Clintons are gonna throw at him and what the Democrats are gonna throw.” The other school of thought is, vice-versa.<\/p>\n


\n“Hillary doesn\u2019t know what she\u2019s dealing with! Hillary has never had to deal with what she\u2019s gonna be faced with. Hillary has never been vetted. Hillary has always been just there by acclaim,” and it\u2019s producing some surprsies in terms of analysts. Mark Halperin — who is, you\u2019d have to say, a steady leftist both inside the media and out — was on the Today show today, and he was asked: “What do you think\u2019s gonna happen here?” You know, everybody that\u2019s involved is being asked what they think. And Halperin, he\u2019s studious, used to be at ABC, used to be involved in presidential debates. He\u2019s with Bloomberg. This is what he said…<\/p>\n

HALPERIN: People who say it\u2019s impossible, I think, are the same people who underestimated him running for the nomination. You\u2019ve got two unpopular candidates here, one an experienced politician. In a normal year, that\u2019d be an advantage. We\u2019re not in a normal year. Donald Trump will run against Hillary Clinton the way he did against Jeb Bush and say, “Business as usual won\u2019t work.” Hillary Clinton will say, “This guy is not acceptable to be president.”<\/p>\n

RUSH: His basic message to the Democrats is, “Don\u2019t underestimate Trump,” which takes us to Nate Silver of the FiveThirtyEight website.<\/a> Nate Silver used to be the New York Times. Believe it or not, Nate Silver during the 2012 campaign, Romney and Obama, Nate Silver — \u2019cause there was a lot of polling data that showed Romney was gonna win five or six points, and there was panic all over the fruited plain in leftist enclaves. But Nate Silver never bought it, and he was their link to sanity. But he admits that they got it wrong on the Republican side, which is gonna cause unease in a lot of places.<\/p>\n

BREAK TRANSCRIPT<\/p>\n

RUSH: Well, Nate Silver. Here\u2019s how this begins (this is the Business Insider): “In September 2015, writer and statistician…” This is not a rip, folks. Don\u2019t anybody call Nate Silver and say that Limbaugh was ragging on him. I\u2019m not. Far, far, far from it. “In September 2015, writer and statistician Nate Silver urged people to ‘calm down\u2019 about the possibility of Donald Trump winning the Republican presidential nomination. Two months later,” November 2015, Nate Silver, “wrote that the media should ‘stop freaking out about Donald Trump\u2019s polls\u2019 and that Trump\u2019s odds were ‘higher than 0 but (considerably) less than 20%,'” of winning the nomination.<\/p>\n

<\/a>“Six months after that, after Ted Cruz had dropped out of the race but before John Kasich had done so, Silver wrote: ‘Donald Trump is going to win the Republican nomination. Other than being early skeptics of Jeb Bush, we basically got the Republican race wrong,\u2019 Silver wrote. It\u2019s easy to cringe at how, in August, for instance, Silver outlined the ‘six stages of doom\u2019 that he foresaw for Trump in the coming months — and how, in December, he updated the post to note that ‘the most difficult hurdles between Donald Trump and the Republican presidential nomination are still to come.'”<\/p>\n

This site, FiveThirtyEight and Silver… Look, they\u2019re like anybody else who takes what they do seriously. They pride themselves on their approach, and they claim it\u2019s unique. They don\u2019t actually… Everybody does polls and deals with results. What they do, as best I understand it, is they take all of the polling data and they run numbers with algorithms and stuff, and they come up with relative percentages that Candidate X will win the nomination and percentages that Candidate X will not, and those percentages fluctuate as the polling changes.<\/p>\n

And it is that technique that Silver has really hit home run after home run after home run on in presidential elections, but did not get this right. And so it opens up a possibility, people, is there a Trump Effect in the polls? Meaning, are there people gonna vote for Trump that won\u2019t say so? Just like the Wilder Effect. Are there people that say they will vote for an African-American but actually don\u2019t end up doing it? So everybody\u2019s kind of discombobulated about this, \u2019cause, remember: Polling data to news organizations and professional politicians, it\u2019s gospel. They live and die by it.<\/p>\n

They don\u2019t even look at polling data as a reflection of public opinion. It is, but that\u2019s not how they use it. They use it to actually make news, and they use it to try to shape public opinion, not reflect it. And when it becomes unreliable, they feel blind and naked, of sorts, and don\u2019t know how to overcome it. So it\u2019s just another small, little tidbit of information you have to throw into the mix here, because you have a genuine outsider who did not have a polling unit himself and did not have a campaign manager per se, did not have a speechwriter, did not have policy position people and this type of stuff.<\/p>\n

It was a bare minimum campaign in that regard. And here\u2019s another thing, too, folks. And this goes to the whole idea that the establishment class simply doesn\u2019t understand and has no ability to see current circumstances the way people not in the establishment see it. It\u2019s the old saw that many Americans think this nation is in crisis — serious, with-not-much-time-left crisis. But inside the Beltway, there is no such thinking whatsoever. And when people inside the Beltway are told that there are people who think this way, they pooh-pooh it. They mock it. They reject it.<\/p>\n


\nRather than study it, rather than trying to learn, they automatically claim it\u2019s not legitimate. “It\u2019s crazy! What do you mean, ‘crisis\u2019?” Because where they live, everything\u2019s fine. Their jobs are fine and they\u2019re getting richer. Their schools are good. They don\u2019t have to live with pockets of homeless people or illegal immigrants. They don\u2019t live in high-crime areas. They don\u2019t have health care concerns or any of the sort. Their economic concerns are much, much fewer and less than the day-to-day economic concerns of average, ordinary Americans.<\/p>\n

So there\u2019s this disconnect in that regard, and it\u2019s big, and it all gets factored in as these people that make judgments on who can win and who can\u2019t and who can resonate with people and who doesn\u2019t. And if you go through it, people — I find it amazing that there are still… I do. I really do find it amazing to one degree or another that there are still educated, intelligent people who cannot yet understand why what has happened. And it really isn\u2019t hard looking from our perspective. Looking at Washington from our perspective, we don\u2019t see anything working. Not only do we not see anything working, we see what they\u2019re doing harming and being counterproductive.<\/p>\n

They have no ability to see it in that way, the people inside the Beltway, \u2019cause their life experience isn\u2019t reflecting any of that. But you want to go down a little bit of a list of things? You have 94 million Americans not working. You have wages (what people earn) essentially stagnant, while the cost of living and mandated government expenses like health care are skyrocketing. The very idea that the government\u2019s mandating, requiring you to buy health insurance! We are in free fall in our foreign policy. In the military, we\u2019ve had a bunch of wars that people now don\u2019t quite understand what the purpose was.<\/p>\n

They supported them at the outset — I mean, really gung-ho, all-in for \u2019em at the outset — but they are questioning everything. Then you have the trade deals which have been popularized in this campaign. The state of education? The whole institution of marriage has been turned upside down and thrown in people\u2019s faces and crammed down their throats. And the same thing is happening with transgender issues and bathrooms now. Just every tradition that people relied on, every institution that people relied on is under assault, and nobody\u2019s defending them. The institutions.<\/p>\n


\nNobody\u2019s defending it, and so there is a quite recognizable sense of panic. And somebody came along and was able to give voice to it and make a lot of people understand, think, realize, that this person (i.e., Trump) recognizes it and is gonna do something about it. It isn\u2019t hard to understand, but if you\u2019re from the old-saw political school of thought where you examine things in the traditional blueprint or playbook way, you\u2019ll miss it. You won\u2019t see it. So I think that describes largely where a lot of people are. Not everybody, of course.<\/p>\n

I mean, the #NeverTrump movement\u2019s still there, and I\u2019ll treat you to them as the program unfolds. All kinds of major, big Republican donors are saying, “I can\u2019t do it! I just can\u2019t give my money to Trump.” The Koch brothers are thinking of going with Hillary, for example. Which really surprises me. I mean, they are libertarians, and that just blows me away that the Koch brothers would be all-in for Hillary. But everybody\u2019s noses are still out of joint in a lot of ways. We\u2019ll see how people are feeling and thinking a week from now, two weeks from now.<\/p>\n

BREAK TRANSCRIPT<\/p>\n

RUSH: Well, right there it is. It\u2019s in The Politico<\/a>. “Republican donors want nothing to do with Donald Trump. … [I]n interviews with more than a dozen major GOP funders, not one on [yesterday] would commit to donating to Trump. … Others went further in expressing their discontent: Representatives of Charles and David Koch … warned the brothers could sit out the presidential campaign entirely — or even back Hillary Clinton.” (interruption) What? (interruption) You don\u2019t think that\u2019s gonna happen? (interruption) No, but I just… (interruption) I got people saying, “That\u2019s never gonna happen! The Koch brothers? I don\u2019t know what you\u2019re talking about. The Koch brothers are never gonna do it. They\u2019re never gonna support Hillary!”<\/p>\n

Well, if you want to throw out what the Politico says, feel free.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s up to you.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

RUSH: Now, the conventional wisdom on Trump. There are two kinds. The two competing theories are Trump\u2019s toast already. “Trump doesn\u2019t have a prayer! Trump is gonna have an array of negative ads launched against him the like of which he\u2019s never seen. The Clintons have money, they have opposition research, and no matter how […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3485","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Experts Are Stumped by Trump - The Rush Limbaugh Show<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rushlimbaugh.com\/daily\/2016\/05\/05\/the_experts_are_stumped_by_trump\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"The Experts Are Stumped by Trump - The Rush Limbaugh Show\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"RUSH: Now, the conventional wisdom on Trump. 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