{"id":3746,"date":"2016-04-05T16:17:31","date_gmt":"2016-04-05T16:17:31","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2016-04-05T16:17:31","modified_gmt":"2016-04-05T16:17:31","slug":"conventional_wisdom_as_wisconsin_goes_so_goes_the_nomination_maybe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rushlimbaugh.com\/daily\/2016\/04\/05\/conventional_wisdom_as_wisconsin_goes_so_goes_the_nomination_maybe\/","title":{"rendered":"Conventional Wisdom: As Wisconsin Goes, So Goes the Nomination — Maybe"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Listen<\/a><\/p>\n

RUSH: And here we are, folks, it\u2019s Tuesday, and that means the Wisconsin primary is underway, and the entire campaign takes on a new meaning, depending on the results tonight. We\u2019ve had a lull. We\u2019ve had a couple of weeks between the last primaries and the lull has been filled with the usual blather about polls, opinions, what-ifs, hypotheticals. Now we\u2019re gonna get some hard results tonight, and the expectation game is in place. <\/p>\n

Greetings. Great to have you. Another three hours of broadcast excellence, and El Rushbo at, the e-mail address, ElRushbo@eibnet.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n

So basically in a nutshell, if Cruz wins tonight, the conventional wisdom is that resets the entire primary and sets Cruz on a path to win it. That\u2019s what people are saying, conventional wisdom. <\/p>\n

The other side, if Trump wins Wisconsin, which based on polling data, would be considered an upset, if Trump wins Wisconsin, then the same conventional wisdomers are saying that it\u2019s over. <\/p>\n

In almost both instances the conventional wisdom wants you to believe it is over tonight. If Cruz wins, it means it\u2019s the end of it for Trump because then the burden shifts to him to win big in New York and to win big in Pennsylvania. Not just win, but to win big. Ditto in New Jersey. If it goes all the way to California, the latest polling data in California, which is in early June, has Trump and Cruz tied. <\/line><\/p>\n

So it\u2019s fascinating to me that everybody wants this over, or at least they\u2019re saying things that make it look like they want this to be over. And I don\u2019t think that\u2019s really the case. I think too many people are enjoying the unknown, the unpredictability and the drama of all of this. But yet when you get down to the various advocate sides, both sides — we\u2019re leaving Kasich out of this for the moment \u2019cause he\u2019s not really in it, in the moment. 1-for-31. The guy\u2019s won one state and they\u2019re still talking about him, and it\u2019s only in the eventuality of an open or contested convention. <\/p>\n

But the Cruz people, really a lot invested tonight. If Cruz wins tonight, the conventional wisdom is it resets the whole thing. Trump will not have won in five primaries in a row, they will be saying. The conventional wisdom says that here\u2019s Trump, what\u2019s his big selling point? That we\u2019re gonna win. With Trump we\u2019re gonna win. There\u2019s gonna be so much winning, we\u2019re gonna get tired of winning. There\u2019s gonna be so much winning, we\u2019re gonna ask President Trump to lose now and then just to keep us humble. <\/p>\n

But after tonight, if Trump loses Wisconsin, there\u2019s no winning. I mean, there\u2019s no momentum. This will be the fourth or fifth primary in a row that Trump has not won. So it\u2019ll make his primary message “winning” a little empty, so goes the conventional wisdom and that\u2019s why it would reset everything and mobilize forces for Cruz. <\/p>\n

Now, it\u2019s interesting on the Cruz side — don\u2019t get mad at me here. I\u2019m just sharing with you things that I\u2019ve learned in recent days. There\u2019s a lot of support for Cruz out there. I don\u2019t think people understand what\u2019s really going on throughout the so-called conservative movement. ‘Cause I am here to tell you that there are some in the conservative movement who will not be unhappy at all if Hillary Clinton becomes president because they can keep their fundraising up. Keep the donations coming in by warning everybody of the disasters that are gonna happen with Hillary Clinton in the White House. <\/p>\n

The same thing they accuse me of, essentially, except in my case it isn\u2019t true. For 27 years I\u2019ve had various people in the media say, “You know what? Limbaugh\u2019s talking a good game. He really loves the Democrats winning because that\u2019s when his show really has got things to bounce off of and there\u2019s villains and there\u2019s enemies.” Not true. I really do care about the country. But there are some in the conservative movement, I mean, I\u2019m gonna move the so-called allegation around a little bit, there are some — I wouldn\u2019t have been believed this, by the way, had I not been given some incontrovertible evidence of it. But there are some people not advocating for Hillary to win; they\u2019re just not gonna be upset if she does. <\/line><\/p>\n

They are primarily anti-Trumpsters. This group of conservatives despises Trump. They worry horribly about Trump for the very same reason. If Trump wins and everybody is gonna agree that he\u2019s not a movement conservative guy, then it\u2019s gonna impact negatively conservative movement fundraising, donations, and power structures and so forth because they\u2019re not gonna be able to claim that they\u2019re helping Trump. They\u2019re not gonna be able to claim that they\u2019re tight with Trump. So never, never discount the role of money. <\/p>\n

You know, that Michael Gerson piece in the Washington Post<\/a> that I really haven\u2019t gone into great detail on on purpose, but he wrote this piece blaming me for Trump, blaming me for everything. It was a pretty big hit piece, but those happen routinely now, so I didn\u2019t comment on it. But the thing in it that really upset him more than anything was that my allegations about certain members of the establishment wanting to preserve their financial circumstance — in other words, that they are being oriented, motivated by money, oh, did that offend them. Because, you see, they want to be seen as above all of those mundane concerns like how do you pay the bills. <\/p>\n

They\u2019re so much more important than that. They\u2019re so much bigger. They don\u2019t have such concerns. Such concerns would never, ever influence their intellectualism. And there I went and said it. But you can\u2019t deny it. It\u2019s true for everybody. I mean, even one of the large constituency groups of Trump, what\u2019s motivating a lot of support is stagnant wages for 15 years among a significant portion of America. <\/p>\n

It matters. Everybody knows it matters. Follow the money. You\u2019ll always — most of the time, anyway — be able to answer a lot of questions to which the answers don\u2019t make sense until you apply the money aspect to it. So fundraising and donation, people live and die on that. <\/p>\n

<\/a>They need certain circumstances for that to max out, and they either… They do one of two things: They need to be able to position themselves as powerful enough to stop the enemy, like Hillary, or they have to be able to portray themselves as up close, personal, and tight enough with whoever is in power to have great influence over that person. If one of those two circumstances doesn\u2019t eventuate, then they panic. And Trump is what equals one of those two circumstances not eventuating. <\/p>\n

I mean, people I\u2019m talking about — and there are a lot of them — have been totally disposed against Trump since the beginning for a whole host of reasons, but they don\u2019t tell you this reason that I am explaining to you. And what they do… Their cover is that they are for Cruz. This is my real point with this. They make a point of making it look like their opposition to Trump is rooted in support for Cruz, but it really isn\u2019t. <\/p>\n

Not that they oppose Cruz, but that the thing that motivates them and informs them — that ambulates them, if you will — is really opposition to Trump, which includes not being all that upset if Hillary wins. Then by the same token, you\u2019ve got some people in the conservative movement who are dead set against Trump and for Cruz strictly for principle and honor and patriotism and so forth. So the interests here are many and they are varied and they are deep.<\/p>\n

And many of them are personal. So if Cruz wins, conventional wisdom is that\u2019s it for Trump. That\u2019s four or five losses in a row. That destroys the brand of “winning.” It obviously brings to a screeching halt any momentum, and it will then begin presenting coverage of why. “What has gone wrong? What did go wrong? What is wrong with Trump?” That begins a whole series of negative coverage such as the polling data on his unfavorables, primarily with women. <\/p>\n

If Trump pulls an upset and wins, then it becomes a matter of 1,237. It looks like he can make it — and in that sense, it will be over. So a lot of people… That\u2019s all of these primaries… We\u2019ve had days like this where people said, “This is it! This! What happens tonight, this is gonna determine the outcome.” Those are media people interested in ratings. But it\u2019s true again tonight. They\u2019re saying, “What happens tonight in Wisconsin will probably tell us how this is all going to end.”<\/line><\/p>\n

But it will not tell us if it takes us to a contested, brokered, whatever, convention. It will not tell us what\u2019s gonna happen there, which continues the possibility for Kasich and continues the possibility for Paul Ryan, who\u2019s saying so often that he doesn\u2019t want it, that you begin to be suspicious. And then Marco Rubio is out there desperately holding onto his delegates. Obviously he wants to have some leverage in what happens. <\/p>\n

So that basically is the way the table gets set. That\u2019s how all this happens today. I myself am not going to know until about 11 o\u2019clock tonight or midnight what happened because I gotta go to New York. I have to zip up to New York after the program. I have an annual event tonight. I\u2019ll be able to sneak a peek now and then, but not much. So I won\u2019t know. I will not get home probably until two a.m. tomorrow. (interruption) Oh, yeah, I\u2019m zipping back. You don\u2019t think I\u2019m staying up there and let the tax authorities figure out I\u2019m doing work up there? <\/p>\n

No way. <\/p>\n

That\u2019d trigger another three-year audit. No, so I will zip right back. I\u2019ll get back about two in the morning, and I will be able to figure out what all happened on the flight home, on the plane ride home. So none of what I do here will be interrupted. I just want you to know. If you\u2019re thinking, “Gee, what does Rush think of this?” I won\u2019t know, unless something so outrageous happens that the event tonight\u2019s interrupted for people to learn. But the event tonight is not political in any way, shape, manner, or form, so… (interruption)<\/p>\n

Yeah, my watch will be vibrating and I\u2019ll have the phone with me, and I\u2019ll be able to the check now and then, but I\u2019m not gonna be able to get into in-depth stuff. I\u2019m not gonna be able to listen to speeches, victory, defeat speeches, what have you, whatever happens, until 11 o\u2019clock when it\u2019s all over. I assume it\u2019s gonna be known by 11, Eastern Time. <\/p>\n

BREAK TRANSCRIPT<\/p>\n

RUSH: We\u2019re up to sound bite number four. This is Trump in LaCrosse, Wisconsin, yesterday analyzing the Wisconsin primary.<\/p>\n

TRUMP: If we do well here, folks, it\u2019s over. If — if we don\u2019t —<\/p>\n

AUDIENCE: (cheering)<\/p>\n

TRUMP: If we don\u2019t win here, it\u2019s not over, but wouldn\u2019t you like to take the credit in Wisconsin for ending it? Give Wisconsin the credit for ending it, and then we could focus on Hillary instead of these two guys.<\/p>\n

RUSH: Latest polling data — I think the ones that everybody pays attention to — is that Cruz is up 4.5%, 4.6%. There\u2019s a couple polls that have Cruz up 10%. An ARG Poll that most people are laughing out came out yesterday has Trump up 10%, but nobody knows. I take that back! Kellyanne Conway knows. I take that back. I watched her. She was on I think it was CNN this morning. Kellyanne Conway. She works for Cruz, not that that matters. But she\u2019s a great pollster. And she predicted, when the subject of Trump winning Wisconsin came up. “No, no, no, no, no, no,” she said. “Cruz is gonna win this, and he\u2019s gonna get to 40%.” So they\u2019re pretty confident on the Cruz side that the polling data in their favor is right. <\/p>\n

Here is Joe Trippi, Democrat analyst, on Fox & Friends this morning, being asked if he thinks Trump is right; that if he wins Wisconsin, it\u2019s over.<\/p>\n

TRIPPI: I would say that\u2019s true. If he wins, it\u2019s very tough to see how, uh, Cruz has any argument to go on. Look, with what the establishment\u2019s thrown at him and what Cruz has going for him: Popular, Governor Walker, the organization he has, plus demographics aren\u2019t the best for Trump in a state like Wisconsin.<\/p>\n

RUSH: Steve Doocy then said, “Karl Rove, do you agree with Joe\u2019s analysis of Trump\u2019s analysis that if Trump win\u2019s Wisconsin it\u2019s over?”<\/p>\n

ROVE: I do, because he agreed with Trump. I think Trump\u2019s right. If he wins Wisconsin, the contest is over. Trump has done slightly better in states where there is an open primary, where independents and Democrats can come in and vote. This state is one where he should be able, manufacturing state, blue-collar state, he spent a lot of time there. If he wins, it\u2019s over. If he loses, this is gonna be a tougher contest.<\/line><\/p>\n

RUSH: Right. So if Trump wins I tell you there\u2019s something else — you Cruzers had better be on the lookout for this. You may want to pooh-pooh this when you hear me say it, but I think if Trump does win tonight, you\u2019re gonna be faced with a bunch of people from all over the spectrum — I\u2019m not naming names here — that Cruz should get out, is what you\u2019re gonna hear. He can\u2019t win. It\u2019s mathematically impossible. Cruz can\u2019t win, need to get out, need to unify. <\/p>\n

There\u2019s gonna be pressure brought. I don\u2019t think Cruz is gonna react to it. I just want to tell you it\u2019s gonna offend you, gonna make you mad. The strategy all along here is to take this to a contested convention, \u2019cause Cruz believes no matter what it\u2019s either him or Trump that are gonna be chosen. One of those two is gonna win the nomination. And he\u2019s already working the delegates for the second ballot in a contested convention. Maybe — not maybe — is doing a much more organizational job, better job than Trump is, of getting great relationships going with delegates for that second ballot, if nobody wins on the first. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

RUSH: And here we are, folks, it\u2019s Tuesday, and that means the Wisconsin primary is underway, and the entire campaign takes on a new meaning, depending on the results tonight. We\u2019ve had a lull. 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