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RUSH: According to latest CNN poll, Obama’s job approval is down from 53% in May to 45% now. Approval of his handling of the economy is down 2% to 42%. On foreign affairs Obama’s down five points to 44. On illegal immigration, Obama’s disapproval is up to 56. And only 49% of respondents say Obama is honest or trustworthy. You know, this polling data, this is huge, folks. We haven’t seen this before. We have not seen this kind of intense evidence of Obama losing approval, losing popularity, and losing support. And it’s a CNN poll.

Now, I think there’s a reason for this. To the extent that after the 2012 elections — I’m gonna be very reluctant to just discount polls anymore. You know, how we sat here and said, “Well, look, these people are ignoring the 2010 turnout. These polls can’t possibly be right,” that showed Obama up five, up six, up eight. And it turned out those polls were right. So I’m not gonna sit here and automatically just discount these things, particularly when it’s from a mainstream Drive-By polling unit like CNN. So what could explain it? Well, let’s use the Limbaugh Theorem. Obama is not campaigning against NSA spying. Obama is not campaigning against IRS abuses. All this has stopped. Obama is not campaigning against spying on the media. And he is not campaigning against Hillary Clinton’s handling of Benghazi.

Now, there’s a story in the Stack, Dingy Harry needs the amnesty bill by the end of next week. That is also losing ground. The Gang of Eight immigration bill is losing ground. Obama is losing ground in a couple of polls on immigration. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Dingy Harry is now starting to make noises that we gotta do this now or never. Whenever there’s a crisis, manufactured or otherwise — whenever there’s an emergency — it usually means the liberals are in trouble, or they think they are.

Dingy Harry is starting to ring the bells and make some noise about, “We got to get this done. We gotta stop piddling around with this.” Now, I think Obama got away from the playbook here. He got away from the Limbaugh Theorem. He stopped… I’m serious. He stopped campaigning against the NSA spying. All this news is still being reported, Snowden and all this stuff. The NSA guy was on TV today, a committee hearing, explaining all their great successes.

Obama has stopped campaigning against it. In fact, what I mean is, Obama is not on television telling people how upset he is about this, and when he doesn’t do that, he runs a risk that it will be attached to him. The great miracle that he’s pulled off is that, after 4-1/2 years of his presidency, he is still not attached to anything that he’s doing. But he’s made that possible by constantly running or campaigning, appearing to be against everything that’s happening. Even his own ideas!

Once he stops all of the campaigning, then he’s not seen as his supporters have come to expect to see him. It’s a very subtle thing. I could be all wet on it because the subtlety is such here that low-information people don’t see it. If this is the reason, by the way, it’s a subconscious realization on their part. It’s not something active. I don’t want anybody to misunderstand me. Obama’s supporters are not saying to themselves, “You know, he’s not campaigning against this anymore. It must be his.”

That’s not how it’s happening in their brains. There is a 4-1/2 year Obama behavioral pattern they’ve become accustomed to whatever happens that’s going wrong. Obama is always perceived to be against it, trying to fix it. He’ll go out and make a speech, go out in a campaign appearance, whatever. He hasn’t been doing that in the last week to 10 days when this poll was taken. He has stopped complaining about the IRS abuses, but the stories keep coming, and the stories are not favorable.

We now know that this attempt to blame it on a couple rogue employees in Cincinnati was the equivalent of claiming the video caused Benghazi. This was happening in the Washington, DC, office — and the news on the IRS scandals is that it’s reaching higher and higher into levels of the White House. Obama’s not out there campaigning, saying, “I’m gonna find an answer to this! I’m gonna bring it to a screeching halt. This isn’t right. It isn’t fair! The IRS shouldn’t be used that way.”

He said that at the outset of the scandal, but he hasn’t said it in a week or 10 days. The spying on the media that the NSA’s doing, all this NSA stuff, he’s not on the campaign trail making speeches opposing any of this stuff, folks. I’m telling you: That is a major departure in the way Obama is perceived. But I think the manifestation of this in the minds of his supporters is very, very subtle. I don’t know that they’re even aware why they are, all of a sudden, giving him worse numbers in the poll.

That’s just my theory.

But basically what it is, is he got away from the playbook. He got away from his own playbook, and it’s costing him. He’s halfheartedly campaigning for this or that and the other thing. But he has stopped appearing as though he’s fighting for Americans. He’s not an outsider. He hasn’t been perceived as an outsider in this last week to 10 days, maybe two weeks. Obama’s spying on Americans. Obama’s IRS is targeting Obama enemies.

That’s why I think the focus on immigration is intensifying. I remember, ladies and gentlemen, way back when. People were calling, “Rush, what’s it gonna take to change people’s minds about Obama?” They were just throwing their hands up, and I said, “Look, it’s gonna take something pop culture-ish to hurt Obama. It’s not gonna be a standard, ordinary political scandal or a series of them that are gonna do Obama in, and it’s not gonna be the media turning.

I made a joke: “It’s gonna be something along the lines of Obama publicly dissing Justin Timberlake’s latest CD. That’s the kind of thing that will tick off low-information voters, and make them think maybe he isn’t one of them.” Well, the NSA monitoring — and I don’t want to make too big a deal of this, but for people under 30, this NSA monitoring could be the beginning of a tipping point. “Generation Text.” (My coinage.) If only people aged 30 and older could have voted in 2012, Romney would be president today.

Romney beat Obama among voters age 30 and over by two points.

But he lost the election in part because Obama won younger voters 60 to 36.

The young Generation Text, who live their lives on their devices, are watching this NSA thing, and, all of a sudden, Obama doesn’t appear to be against it anymore. The news on this continues. Now, at first, Apple and Microsoft and Facebook and Twitter all denied it. Then they all admitted it. Then details of how they did it emerged, and then the quantity of data that was given to the government was released. So we’ve had a steady progression here of tantamount admissions that all of this originally alleged and denied is indeed happening and has been happening.

Obama is not appearing against it. He’s not campaigning, no speeches against it, and it’s very subtle. You might even disagree with my take on this. These polls could be snapshots that turn out not to be true, either. We’ll have to wait ’til the next two or three series of polls. But it is new to have this kind of deterioration in virtual every question asked in this CNN poll for Obama. Not that they care that much. I mean, he’s not running for reelection again, and so it’s not as disturbing to them as it would be if this were last September or October.


RUSH: One more bit of information on the poll drop, another factor in this poll drop for Obama. The Drive-Bys are not spending a lot of time on this. CNN is because it’s their poll, but you’re not seeing this too many places, which is another indication I think that it’s… Well, look. It’s gonna be disturbing to the Drive-Bys. They’ve done everything they can to prop the poor guy up, and common sense says that at some point Obama will be held accountable. All presidents are at some point.

Another factor in this poll drop (and it may be the biggest) is among people under 30, what we’re calling here Generation Text. These people may not like the idea of the government reading their texts. Now, unlike the answer we got Miss Alabama at the Miss USA pageant, by the way, where she said (summarized), “We’ve gotta be perfectly happy with them reading my e-mails! I have no problem with it. The government’s job is to keep us safe, and if their reading our e-mails can do that, then I’m all for it!”

“Yay, yay, yay!”

But I’m not sure that that answer represents the consensus thinking of the Generation Text crowd, people under 30. There was a 17% drop in approval for Obama in the under-30 group — 17%, the biggest drop of any group surveyed — just in the last month. So it has to be due to the NSA story, the monitoring news that’s out there. The CNN poll also found that almost half of the respondents thought that Obama ordered the IRS targeting of Tea Party groups. That is a massive change, folks. That is huge. Almost half the people in the poll thought Obama ordered the IRS targeting of conservatives.

Now, the poll doesn’t say whether they are mad about that or not. Hee-hee. But 50% think Obama did it. That’s big.


RUSH: For those of you who doubt my theory on why Obama’s losing ground in polling data, I want you to listen to this, just now on CNN, Around the World, Michael Holmes talking with Gloria Borger. “On the political aspect does this help the President politically or is he going to have to do more?” Listen to this.

BORGER: We know that the president has given some press interviews, he’s encouraged this conversation about the balance between liberty and national security, but at some point the president’s gonna have to lead the conversation because, after all, this is the same person who railed against a form of these kind of surveillance when he was a United States Senator. So I think it may be more incumbent upon him at a certain point after they unroll this, as they’re clearly trying to do, to come out and speak some more about it to the American people.

RUSH: She’s admitting it. What she is saying, that the president’s gotta go back to railing against spying. She was being asked why support for Obama is starting to wane, and her answer, you heard it, she was essentially saying he’s got to get back to railing against spying. What she doesn’t know is that she’s saying he’s got to get back to the Limbaugh Theorem. He’s gotta start campaigning. He’s gotta resume campaigning against this stuff, like he used to do.


RUSH: I had to rush through this Gloria Borger sound bite, but earlier in this program, in the first hour, we went through some pretty interesting polling data. I don’t want to make too much of it, but it is different. Obama’s approval number overall is down — and issue by issue, it’s way down. For example, there’s a 10-point increase in the number of people who think that Obama personally supervised the IRS targeting of Tea Party people. A 10-point increase. It’s up to a little over 51% now.

That’s a massive leap. In the case of the NSA scandal, that has affected people under 30. The drop in approval for Obama in the under 30 crowd took a 17-point hit. So we were speculating here, “Why? What might be the explanation for this?” I offered that Obama has not been using what I call here the Limbaugh Theorem. Now, what Obama does to keep himself unattached from everything happening in his administration, his presidency, is to campaign against it.

He’s always on TV in a campaign-looking event, an event that looks like a campaign. He’s either fundraising or campaigning for the latest piece of legislation he wants. But he’s always out appearing like a candidate, and the one thing that people perceive about a candidate is that he’s seeking election. Now, they know Obama’s president. Don’t misunderstand. They know that, but we’re talking about low-information voters here.

They also believe that when Obama says, “The deficit won’t go up a dime,” he means it. And when it does, it’s not his fault. He’s trying to keep that from happening. When Obama says, “Health insurance premiums are gonna drop by $2500,” they believe that. So when health premiums skyrocket, because Obama’s constantly campaigning against higher costs, his supporters believe that it’s happening in spite of him and that he’s doing his best to stop it; he’s doing his best to fix it.

They do not see that he’s the architect of all of it. So my theory is that in the last 10 days to two weeks, he has ceased this behavior. He’s not making speeches against the NSA. He’s not making campaign appearances against the IRS. He is not making campaign appearances against NSA spying or any of these other issues. Obama visually, on the campaign trail, has ceased. And I know. Believe me, I know that when I articulated this theory… I have empathy.

I know that many of you thought, “Boy, Rush, you’ll do anything to get your theory out there, won’t you? You’ll do anything to try to persuade us your theory is right!” That’s not what I was doing. You mighta thought it was stretch. That’s why I wanted you to listen to Gloria Borger. She was on CNN that knew, have a show called Around the World. And the coanchor, Michael Holmes, was talking to Borger. She’s the chief political analyst at CNN.

And they were talking about the NSA releasing new information about alleged terror plots that were allegedly foiled by the survive program. The host asked Gloria Borger, “On the political aspect of this, does the NSA telling their success story help the president politically or is he gonna have to do more?” Because the subtext here is that CNN has a poll where Obama is losing support on the NSA issue. I want you to hear how she answers this question and what she thinks Obama better start doing.

BORGER: We know that the president has given some press interviews, he’s encouraged this conversation about the balance between liberty and national security, but at some point the president’s gonna have to lead the conversation because, after all, this is the same person who railed against a form of these kind of surveillance when he was a United States Senator. So I think it may be more incumbent upon him at a certain point after they unroll this, as they’re clearly trying to do, to come out and speak some more about it to the American people.

RUSH: Yeah, see? She knows exactly what his formula for success is, and she wants him to do more of it. “Mr. President, you need to get out there and stay critical of what the NSA is doing.” She is getting ever so close to confirming the existence of the Limbaugh Theorem. She is getting ever so close to acknowledging that it exists and that Obama has wandered off the pathway, because he has ceased speaking out against these things, and when he stops speaking out against them, then this appearance of detachment also vanishes.

So Gloria Borger wants him to get back out there and start speaking against this stuff, even though she knows it’s his policy.

So I just wanted to run that by you.


RUSH: Here’s Carolyn in Crete, Illinois. Great to have you on the program. Hi.

CALLER: Hi, Professor Limbaugh. I’m very nervous to speak to you, and thank you for everything you do for us every day.

RUSH: Well, I appreciate that. Thank you very, very much.

CALLER: I’ll ask my question real quick. I was just curious for your opinion on what you think will happen, that after Obamacare is fully implemented, and all of these illegal immigrants are made legal, and they have drained the pocketbooks and the morale of not only the Republicans and the conservatives, but the hardworking middle-of-the-road Democrats, do you think that this could be —

RUSH: Let me just give you one area that you brought up, Obamacare. I happen to be a small business proprietor and, as such, I’m looking at what the tax tables are going to be starting next year. Deductions for all of our employees. I’m here to tell you that with the very first paychecks next year, there are going to be people who think that a big mistake has been made, that —

CALLER: Oh, no doubt. I agree.

RUSH: — way too much money’s been taken out and a lot of these people are gonna be shocked because a lot of these people think that Obamacare is going to make life cheaper. Insurance is gonna be cheaper, they believe this stuff. I think that there is just in Obamacare and taxes alone, there is huge sticker shock, if I may use that term to describe this. I think there’s huge sticker shock coming for a lot of people, because a lot of people think that only people of 250 grand a year or more are gonna be affected by it, and that isn’t the case at all. Now, your question, is that gonna wake these people up?

CALLER: Well, they keep saying that the Republican Party is gonna be done with if there’s amnesty and with the new influx of Hispanics. But like you said, with Obamacare coming, I’m wondering if maybe this isn’t gonna be the wake-up call that the Republican Party has been waiting for and that people are gonna say, “We were totally duped. We should have read the fine print, and we’re voting the other way.”

RUSH: Look, you all know that I am among the most ebullient and positive people around. But I’m also the mayor of Realville, and Carolyn, I know that you and millions of Americans are dreaming of one day seeing news stories featuring thousands, millions of Americans saying, “You know what? I was tricked. You know what? I was wrong. You know what? I was played for a fool.” If that is the circumstance that you are relying on in order to feel good, I’m not gonna sit here and predict to you that’s ever going to happen. And if it does, you’re not gonna see it reported.

The media is not gonna do stories like that. “American people wake up. American people realize Obama fraud.” Never gonna happen. “American people realize they are screwed.” Never gonna happen. “American people realize Obama hoodwinked ’em.” Never gonna happen. “American people realize they’ve made biggest mistake since founding.” Never gonna happen. “American people in mass suicide unless Republicans can save them.” Never gonna happen.

I’m not trying to pour ice water, but, look, Carolyn, what you really want are people going to change the way they vote. That will happen. I’m confident at some point that’s gonna happen. But whether you’re gonna have people that voted for Obama call you or tell you, “You know, you were right. Boy, did we make a huge mistake.” That’s not the way it’s gonna manifest itself. And I’m only saying because I get this question, and look, like you, I would love nothing more than to see the lead story on NBC Nightly News: “We were wrong. Sorry. We lied to you.” It’s never gonna happen. The media’s gonna do everything they can to save Obama and his reputation and every Democrat they can for the rest of our lives.


RUSH: Here’s Matt from Indianapolis. Matt, glad you waited. Great to have you Sir on the EIB Network. Hi.

CALLER: (garbled cell connection throughout) Mega dittos from a man who named his first dog Rush. It’s an honor.

RUSH: (laughing) Well, great. Thank you. Uh, thanks. Thanks very much. I really, really appreciate that.

CALLER: You’re welcome. Hey, I wanted to talk to you about polls. In the first hour, you were talking about favorable numbers or I guess dis-favorable for Obama in this recent poll data. You know, the polling doesn’t really give me a whole lot of confidence these days since the 2012 election when we had favorable polling data on our side for a lot of swing states, that turned out to be pretty wildly inaccurate compared to what we’re used to seeing. You know, I think when people get behind that —

RUSH: Well, maybe so. The polls all called it right, the polls in this last race. We thought that it was a much closer race than it was and we thought Romney was even gonna win, and all of these national polls had Obama winning by anywhere from five to eight points, and I remember myself saying it was wrong. I accused them of media bias in the polling data because they weren’t considering the 2010 turnout.

CALLER: Right.

RUSH: And it turns out those polls were right on the money.

CALLER: Yeah, I think a lot of people have a hard time identifying themselves as Democrats. Even if they disagree with policies or a polling question, once they get behind that booth, they just have a really hard time pulling that lever for a person with an (R) behind their name, even if they disagree completely with the guy with the (D) behind their name. So the 2014 election will tell us a lot about whether this polling data are right again or not.

RUSH: Okay, I’m not sure I’m following you because I’m having trouble hearing you. I’m having trouble understanding what you’re saying, so I’m having to read a transcription of what you’re saying, and I’m way behind you. I’m trying to do two things at once. Are you saying people lie to pollsters?


RUSH: That’s your point?


RUSH: Because they don’t want the pollster to think they’re racist or they don’t want the pollster to think they’re Republican, so they tell ’em things that aren’t necessarily true just because they’re so concerned what the pollster’s gonna think of ’em?

CALLER: Or just go with the flow of what the media coverage is at the time. You know, ’cause this current one is that Barack is unfavorable in these polls, but —

RUSH: Okay, but your point with this is what?

CALLER: That basically the polling data that shows dis-favorability for Barack right now, I just have a hard time believing it based upon the fact that people once they actually go behind a lever to vote against him, have a hard time pulling the lever for somebody that is a Republican. Flat-out.

RUSH: Okay, well, I’m sitting here thinking he’s talking about the 2012 potential polls. He doesn’t believe the current polling data is right. Oh, okay. Okay. You don’t think Obama’s actually down in the polling data right now?

CALLER: No, I don’t. I have a hard time believing it.

RUSH: Well, why would they lie about that? I would think they’d be more inclined to lie about their support for Obama.

CALLER: Because right now the public perception is — again, we talk about perception — that he’s been involved in some sticky things lately. So they want to make it seem like, “Well, because of these things I may not support that side of the argument again.” The current perception is that, “Oh, maybe there is a trust issue.”

RUSH: Okay. I’m lost. I don’t understand the logic. Because if people don’t tell the pollsters the truth because they don’t want the pollsters to think ill of them, it seems to me that in a presidential approval poll you would lie and say, “I love Obama. I think he’s doing great. I don’t have any problem with the IRS scandal.” But they’re not supporting Obama in the poll, is the point. For the first time, they’re expressing dissatisfaction with Obama. Anyway, I have to take a break. I’m glad you called, Matt. Thanks for the call. I appreciate it.


RUSH: Okay, it took me awhile to figure it out, but what our previous caller was saying was that no matter what people are saying in these polls, in the end they’re always gonna support Obama. They might say yesterday or last week that they disapprove of the way Obama’s doing this or that, but if there were another election, they’d vote for him anyway. So the polls are meaningless. The snapshot doesn’t mean anything. Even though these people are saying it, they don’t really mean it.

They still love Obama; they’re always gonna love Obama. There’s nothing we can do about it. Get used to it. They’re gonna love Obama. They hate us and don’t ever think anything different. That’s not me. I think this is real. I think the late-night comedians are starting to make fun of Obama. I think Obama’s out. I think everything that’s insulated him from being attached to his own policies is shifting.

That 17-point drop among young people is the first thing. That’s real. Nearly half believe Obama ordered the IRS targeting. These are big, big jumps. I don’t know if it’ll hold up next week or not. The caller could be right, but it doesn’t matter ’cause Obama’s not gonna be on the ballot anymore. The only reason the polling data has any interest to me is, of course, you and I are interested in whether or not the public’s gonna wake up. But I’m not living any fantasyland about that.

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