RUSH: If I’ve had one person send it to me I’ve had five people send me this idea that Nate Silver is out predicting that Trump doesn’t have a chance to win the presidency. Have you seen this, Snerdley? (interruption) Well, yeah. Let me tell you something: Nate Silver used to be a god in the New York Times, and he’s not a pollster. He’s a renowned pollster analyst. Meaning he found algorithms and software programs and bots and all kinds of things to analyze all the data in all the polls.
And what he would do is issue percentage for the chances various candidates had to win, and he came to fame in 2012 assuring liberal Democrats all over the world, but particularly in this country, that Romney was going to lose. Whenever there was polling data showing Romney pulling ahead, Nate Silver would come out and say, “No, it’s not true,” and literally there would be a national sigh of relief. But then Silver started blowing it.
He left the New York Times, went over to ESPN, and has his own FiveThirtyEight blog. He’s back now predicting Hillary Clinton has a 79% chance of winning the presidency, compared to Trump’s 20%. Now, Silver still has a lot of acolytes out there. He still has a lot of true believers. And they’re applauding and they’re partying and they’re ecstatic, but they are forgetting something crucial. Nate Silver has been wrong about Donald Trump predictions seven times since last June.
“1. June 16, 2015: Why Donald Trump Isn’t A Real Candidate.” Silver’s website said Trump’s not a real candidate because “Trump’s high name recognition combined with a staggering -32 favorability made him the least-liked presidential candidate of all time,” which meant, “‘Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another Home Alone movie with Macaulay Culkin — or playing in the NBA Finals — than winning the Republican nomination…'” Silver blew it.
“2. July 16, 2015: Two Good Reasons Not To Take The Donald Trump ‘Surge’ Seriously.” So Trump’s taking off, Nate Silver comes out with two reasons why everyone should not believe it; dead wrong again.
“3. July 20, 2015: Donald Trump Is The World’s Greatest Troll Silver finally weighed in with this article, where he described Trump as a ‘troll’ candidate, who was thriving simply by virtue of the tremendous attention he could receive by insulting everybody,” but he was not going to go anywhere. He had no chance to win the nomination. “4. Aug. 6, 2015: Donald Trump’s Six Stages of Doom.” Obviously wrong. “He pegged Trump’s odds of winning the nomination at 2%…
“5. Aug. 11, 2015: Donald Trump Is Winning The Polls, And Losing The Nomination. … ‘Our emphatic prediction is simply that Trump will not win the nomination,’ Silver said. ‘It’s not even clear that he’s trying to do so.’
“6. Nov. 23, 2015: Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls.” They don’t mean anything; Trump has no chance. “7. Donald Trump Comes Out Of Iowa Looking Like Pat Buchanan — Silver was quick to pounce after Trump finished second to Ted Cruz in the Iowa caucuses,” saying this is as good as it gets. He’s been wrong seven times predicting the fate and fortune of Donald Trump.
RUSH: Eric in Edmore, Michigan. You’re next, sir. Great to have you. Hi.
CALLER: Yes. Dittos from Edmore, Michigan, the Potato Capital. You were talking early on about all the polling about how Trump was not gonna win, can’t win. It’s all irrelevant because he has created his own shift in politics in the way he’s done everything. He’s done everything his own way.
RUSH: Wait. You mean the polls are irrelevant?
CALLER: The polls are now irrelevant, and even the way campaigns are being run is becoming irrelevant.
RUSH: I see what you mean.
CALLER: That’s how he changed everything.
RUSH: Right. Well, again, he’s talking about Nate Silver. Nate Silver came out — wunderkind of liberalism for predicting Obama victory and so forth. Nate Silver has been wrong seven straight times predicting Trump the way he normally does. He analyzes all the polling data, and even factors celebrity endorsements into the way he does his analysis. And he’s been wrong on Trump seven times.