RUSH: Now, as for what’s happening today, keeping today in perspective, it’s gonna be a great day for Trump. You got voters in Connecticut, Maryland, Rhode Island, Delaware, and Pennsylvania. So 172 delegates will be accounted for today. Trump is expected to win all five of these primaries.
He’s expected to win between 98 and 123 of the 172 delegates at stake. But all of this is expected — none of this is a surprise — and winning these delegates is not going to add or increase Trump’s chances of wrapping up the nomination. All of the projections people are making of total delegate count going into Indiana and then going into California, already include these. Now, I’m not trying to tamp down spirit today. I’m just trying to keep everything in perspective for you.
Whatever happens today has already been calculated in delegate projections. It’s already been factored, and it’s all based on polling data, and it’s probably true. Trump’s gonna sweep these five primary states. He’s gonna get these delegates, between 98 and 123. They are already accounted for. In other words, delegates that Trump wins today are not surprise delegates nobody expected to get added to the list. They’re already in everybody’s lists. So what it means is that, after today, the nomination is actually going to be determined by the 10 primaries left after today.
There are only 10 remaining after we finish these five today — and of those 10, Indiana is the focus, and Indiana is next week. And there’s drama there, because nobody knows whether Trump or Cruz is going to win Indiana. And Kasich is a wild card and is even more sporadic and wild cardish now. I mean, nobody can keep track of what he’s doing or saying. One moment he doesn’t want people to vote for him; the next moment he says he does want people to vote for him. He’s vetting vice presidential nominees.
We have this nonaggression pact that Kasich and Cruz have supposedly signed, but it’s already beginning to fray. But Scott Rasmussen says, “There is one ironic footnote to the Northeastern Primary. The very process that Trump claims is rigged will once again work to his benefit. His share of the delegates won on Tuesday will almost certainly exceed his share of the vote. Up to this point, Trump has earned 28% more delegates than his pro rata share of the vote would deem appropriate,” such, as an example, New York.
Trump got 60% of the vote and 95% of the delegates. He got many more delegates than you would think proportionate to the votes. So it works both ways. Now, of the 172 delegates that are available today, 118 of them will be formally pledged to a candidate on the first ballot, and it doesn’t matter who these delegates end up being. We don’t know who they are. These delegates, some of them may have been chosen. These states may have had their convention; some of them may have not. We don’t know who the delegates are.
It doesn’t matter who they are, doesn’t matter what the delegates think; 118 of them are formally pledged to a candidate on the first ballot. Trump should win between 98 and 106 of these. So, again, not to tamp down anybody’s spirit today, but what’s on tap today has already been factored into everybody’s projections. Trump’s expected to sweep big, and it’s relevant in the sense that it could create even more momentum. I mean, it’s not good when you have five losses in a row like Cruz and Kasich are gonna experience today. But at the same time, it doesn’t constitute anything today happening that’s unexpected. So no surprises.
RUSH: This is the irony that Scott Rasmussen was talking about:
“When you add it all up, Trump is likely to win less than 50% of the vote on Tuesday, but end up with between 57% and 72% of the delegates,” and nobody’s gonna complain because that’s the rules. That’s the way it works out. Nobody’s whining about it. It’s just the way it happens. But it’s not going to tell us any more than we already know. Not a lot, because all of this is already factored in.
RUSH: Chambersburg, Pennsylvania, we’re gonna start on the phones with Sean today. Sean, welcome. I’m glad you called, sir. Hello.
CALLER: Thank you for taking my call, Mr. Limbaugh.
RUSH: You bet.
CALLER: I’m just upset the way today you’re just dismissing the importance of what’s happening here in Pennsylvania, on each count. I mean, you say it’s no big deal, it’s all expected. Well, three months ago you were telling us Trump had a ceiling, and today he may get 50% in Pennsylvania, he may get 50% all across the board or more in the vote tonight. I just think you’re dismissing this movement as it’s irrelevant, oh, it’s just expected, let’s move on and talk about Ted Cruz and his whole strategy. I don’t get it. I feel you’re dismissing us.
RUSH: No, no, no, no, no. It’s quite the opposite. I’m trying to show you a profound amount of respect and treat you as though you have a very high level of understanding of what’s going on here. I’m not trying to diminish anything. I’m not trying to diminish anybody’s accomplishments. I’m not trying to ballyhoo anybody’s accomplishments or hide anybody’s failures. The only thing I said was that Trump’s gonna sweep. He’s gonna have five wins today, and it’s expected. He’s going to perform as expected. That’s a positive. And as such, what Trump is gonna come away with today in terms of delegates has been factored in.
Everybody’s out there calculating, can Trump get to 1,237, and everybody’s running their numbers. My only point was that in the calculations that people are making about whether or not Trump can get to 1,237 they’re already factoring in Trump winning today. Nothing that happens today would be a surprise unless Trump loses, which isn’t gonna happen. So the range of delegates that Trump is gonna get today is between 98 and 130, and that range has been factored and added to Trump’s current tally as people, the experts — and there are experts everywhere here — are projecting whether or not Trump can get to 1,237 before the convention.
Now, the only point I make about Indiana is it’s not known how Indiana’s gone fall out yet. The polling in Indiana has been sporadic, and there are a lot of factors that are going into Indiana that are hard to calculate yet. But these five states today, it’s known what’s gonna happen. We’ve discussed the delegate allocation process in Pennsylvania, that there are 90 some odd, 17 pledged, 54 unbound. Also in Pennsylvania, the names of the delegates are on the ballot but you don’t know for whom you’re voting, in some districts, some precincts.
But, no, no, no, no. I’m not trying to diminish anything and I’m not trying to say what’s happening in Pennsylvania is not important. It’s just it’s already known, or it’s pretty much assumed that it is known. So at the end of tonight, in terms of hard, cold reality, there isn’t going to be anything unexpected. There isn’t going to be anything new. It’s already been factored. However, I did say — and I will say it again, talked about it yesterday — narratives, narratives have replaced news.
We don’t have news anymore; we have narratives, we have templates, we have stories. And so pro-Trump media is gonna treat this tonight like it is just the greatest thing, it’s manna from heaven, and it’s more unexpected, and it’s Trump slam dunk and it’s gonna be treated that way.
My only point, I’m trying to help you keep perspective here. That’s all. I’m not diminishing, suppressing anything. You know, I’m the mayor of Realville here, and that means I am Mr. Literal. Don’t be offended, Sean. It’s quite the exact opposite. I’m assuming that you’re up to speed on all this stuff, and understand that we got 10 left after today, and I can see where you get offended. You’re hearing me say your state doesn’t count and 10 states yet to vote do count more. Not saying that. It’s just what’s gonna happen in Pennsylvania is largely known, and the only surprise will be if what everybody think’s gonna happen doesn’t. And we’ll find out.
We’ll talk tomorrow, see if there’s any upset applecart, but I’ll bet there probably isn’t going to be.
RUSH: So here. Let me just summarize this again so that nobody’s offended out there. When everything is finished with tonight when all the results are in and everything’s counted — what is expected and what has been factored into everybody’s delegate projections in terms of whether or not Trump can get 1,237 — Trump is likely to win. You know, just saying this is gonna tick people off, but it’s what it is. He’s gonna probably get less than 50% of all votes cast today, but will end up with between 57 and 72% of the delegates.
He’s gonna end being around the 130 delegate range, and those delegates, you know, in a ballpark sense, have been factored and added to his total. You know, we move on down the road to Indiana next Tuesday, and the remaining 10 primary contests as everybody waits with bated breath to find out if Trump can get to 1,237, and if not, how close. And depending on how close, then what happens to get Trump over the number. Because I think one thing is fairly safe to assume.
If Trump shows up at Cleveland a hundred delegates short, there are enough unbound delegates and unpledged delegates that between the California primary and the Cleveland convention in July, Trump can wrap it up. He can secure pledges from unbound. So it may not even be necessary to get all the way to 1,237 beforehand. This is what Cruz, however, is trying to head off at the pass with all of this delegate work. And as we mentioned in the first hour of the program, Trump is now getting in that game.
Trump is gonna start working these state conventions in Virginia and California and a number of other places yet to happen to try to shore up his position with delegates in the entire selection process.
RUSH: I’ll tell you something else that could happen tonight, folks. It could well be that Trump could outperform the expectations, could end up with a few more delegates than are being projected. Remember, it’s the same old, same old. We’re in a lull here, and all we have is wild guesses and projections, and tonight we’re gonna have hard, cold results, and it could turn all of this analysis upside down. It could be totally different from what the projections are today, and it could well be that Trump does even better than what people are projecting.
He could come in with far more than 50% of the vote whereas the projections now are that he’s gonna get less than 50%, in all five of these states. So we’ll just see. We’ll just measure it. ‘Cause we’re in this lull between primaries. Happens every week, sometimes for two weeks when there’s nothing but predictions and fodder and Kelly Ripa and Strahan to talk about, but then we have the primary, have some hard, cold results. I’m sorry. I couldn’t resist. I know. I’m gonna get raked over the coals for what I said about it, and I doubt that anybody’s gonna ever really fully understand what I said about it, but they’re gonna make hay with it.
But the point is that Trump could do much better. Hard, cold results, and whatever the results are, are then gonna flavor the next six, seven days where there’s gonna be projection, punditry, predictions, this kind of thing. But hard, cold results always change and have far more impact than anybody’s wild guesses. So we’ll see what happens tonight.