Nate Silver Battles with Millennial HuffPo Nimrod
RUSH: Did you hear…? I think it was another Huffing and Puffington Post writer or some similar organization was watching the World Series and they tweeted that somebody was showing the KKK sign in the World Series. (interruption) Mediaite. Oh, that’s right.
It was a guy named Josh Feldman at Mediaite, and he was outraged that the KKK was at the World Series and they were showing their sign and that nobody was mad about it! Everybody was applauding, and he was beside himself. Somebody had to take him aside and say, “Hey, Josh, old buddy, old pal? You may want to go talk to the guys at the Harvard soccer team and get the lowdown of what is here because a strikeout in baseball is represented by a K. And as a pitcher gets a strikeout, the fans put up another K — another sign with a K on it,” and at the time, the pitcher had three strikeouts. So here were three Ks up there.
He had no clue. A guy had no clue about how baseball — the former and close to being national pastime — operates. A product of the American educational system and clueless and not only clueless about that but sees three signs with Ks on them and what does he zero in on? What does it mean to him? Ku Klux Klan! How does that happen? That’s a result of teaching, education and conditioning, and Twitter just came down on this poor guy like the dufus that he apparently is about this.
RUSH: If you think Hillary Clinton has North Carolina all wrapped up, Hillary Clinton does not think that she has it all wrapped up. Hillary Clinton is scheduled to be in Raleigh, North Carolina tonight at NC State University at midnight. Midnight! You don’t do that if you think you’ve got the state wrapped up. Now, it’s being reported as a toss-up, moving from leaning Democrat to toss-up, moving from leaning Republican to toss-up by these various news networks and so forth who are doing the deep, deep, deep analysis of all of their polling information. We shall see.
Now a lot of people follow Nate Silver. I’m not a bandwagon guy. And as you know, I’m not a conventional wisdom guy. By definition, I mean, I don’t have to try. My natural instincts are to go against conventional wisdom. Conventional wisdom is trend lines. Conventional wisdom is what everybody else thinks. It’s the safe route. If you sign up with what everybody else thinks, then you’re cool. And I never have. I’ve always, in that sense, been a bit of an — outsider is not the word for it. Malcontent, maybe. I never have been a go-with-the-crowd kind of guy. In fact, I don’t like to go to events that I’m not on the stage. If I’m not on the stage, I don’t want to go. I don’t want to be part of the crowd. That’s just me.
So I don’t look at this the way all these people do with their polling data and thinking infallible. And Nate Silver is, or was for a time, gospel for people on the left when he was at the New York Times. He had his FiveThirtyEight blog. And Nate Silver is who Democrats in need of therapy would seek out during the 2004 election. I forget when it was. But Nate Silver came to fame in whatever presidential election it was, he predicted all 50 states accurately. Now, I don’t know if that was 2012 or if it was ’08 or maybe ’04. I don’t think he goes back that far. And ever since then he’s been a Democrat guru.
So when he comes up with data that does not follow along the conventional wisdom Democrat path, there are Democrats that literally need to pad their rooms. And he’s found himself in that exact circumstance because he has projected that Trump will win Florida. He has projected that Trump’s chances of winning the presidency are up from 11 percent to about 38 percent. There is some millennial nimrod at the Huffing and Puffington Post who is writing about Nate Silver as though he doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Nate Silver has responded, no, this guy at the Huffington Puffington Post is so full of it that you couldn’t stuff anymore in it. And people that follow it just get the biggest kick out of this intramural battle. It’s not some, “Hey, did you hear what Nate Silver said about the guy –” I would never. That’s just not me. But a lot of people get jazzed by it. Big deal, it’s just another pollster.
Not to besmirch Nate Silver, that’s not what I’m doing. Polling is one of these things, I don’t do it so I don’t automatically just accept everything they say. And never have. And sometimes I’ve been justified in doing it. Other times I’ve been wrong and they have been right. At any rate, I just want to tell you what the latest Nate Silver is because it does affect what newsrooms publish and what other people who do follow this stuff think.
The Daily Caller is reporting that Nate Silver is predicting Hillary one state away from losing the electoral college. That’s how tight it is now. Now conventional wisdom has Hillary winning the electoral college vote. Forget all these national polls. They’ve got Hillary on her pathway to 270, but she’s one state away from not getting there. One state away. That makes them very nervous. And then you couple that with Nate Silver projecting Trump to win Florida, and that is from yesterday. So Sunday big news day.
Nate Silver officially projected that Donald Trump will win Florida according to his analysis on Sunday, 52 percent chance of winning Florida. Obama won Florida by less than a percentage point. We’ve already given you the early voting numbers which were dramatically in Trump’s favor as compared to Romney. And the actual Election Day vote in Florida has Trump plus 16 over Hillary.
New York Times: “Hillary Clinton Appears to Gain Late Momentum on Surge of Latino Voters.” Now, this little ditty has been picked up and has been repeated by everybody and we are to believe — we don’t know where this information is gleaned, where they picked it up. “Hispanic voters in key states surged to cast their ballots in the final days of early voting this weekend, a demonstration of political power that lifted Hillary Clinton’s presidential hopes and threatened to block Donald J. Trump’s path to the White House.”
All we know when it comes to early voting is party identification of the early voters. We don’t know how they’re voting unless people are opening the ballots and looking, and that would be illegal. So we’re going to assume that isn’t happening. (Coughing) And that all we have to go on is party ID. So they’re saying, “Well, Hispanics are obviously Democrats, for crying out loud. Look at amnesty, the vast majority of Hispanic early voters have got to be for Hillary.” And that’s where the connection is being made.
What’s Springsteen Going to Say with Hillary?
RUSH: Polls are showing also the African-American vote for Donald Trump is double what Romney got, and Hillary’s actually not performing with the African-American vote nearly as well. She’s not getting the Obama turnout. That’s why Jay Z and Beyonc are showing up half naked, singing all these raunchy songs, trying to get out the African-American vote in Cleveland and Philadelphia. They’ve got Springsteen going to Philadelphia. What’s Springsteen going to sing about?
Bruce Springsteen, he’s going to Philadelphia. What’s he going to say? “Hey, dudes, Hillary will keep your parents’ Obamacare insurance payments high. She’ll keep you in the parents’ basement or sharing an apartment with four other roommates. She’ll protect the universities ripping you off. She’ll break laws and hold you accountable.” What’s he going to sing about?
So this is what Hillary is having to do, is bring out the celeb star power. She ought to ask Comey to show up on stage with her. By the way,
Rumor: Obama Will Fire Comey
RUSH: I’ve heard rumblings, addressed this on Friday. On Friday we had the story that what’s her face, Valerie Jarrett, wanted Obama to fire Comey. Somebody whispered into my ear before the program today that Obama is going to fire Comey. Not before the election, which is tomorrow. But that Comey is going to be fired. What they’re doing is working out the logistics, such as who’s actually going to do it.
Now, Bill Clinton fired Bill Sessions. He was the FBI director back in, I think, Clinton’s first term. So it would be Obama. But Obama may not be the guy to actually go out there and announce it. But that is rumor that I don’t mind passing on because you’ve probably heard it even before I even got around to it.
Stock Market Way Up Because Hillary’s Not Going to Jail
RUSH: The stock market is way up today. You know what they’re saying is the reason why? Do you believe that the stock market is up today? What’s it up? Let’s see, what’s the number here? It’s up 100. That’s the NASDAQ. That’s way up even for NASDAQ. They’re saying the market’s up today because Comey announced that Hillary Clinton is not guilty, that she’s been exonerated. Now, excuse me, do they think we’re that stupid? They must! Okay.
So since Hillary was cleared — since they reviewed 650,000 e-mails in a matter of a week, eight days — then I guess we’re now free and clear to invest even more in the stock market. “Well, that’s right, Mr. Limbaugh, because it means that Hillary is probably going to win and the establishment must prefer her there than Mr. Trump.” That’s the voice of the New Castrati. I’m sorry. You know, I invest in the stock market, and it didn’t even occur to me, folks.