The 10-Year Political Trend Doesn’t Point to a Blue Wave
Oct 16, 2018
RUSH: We’ve been hearing for the past, how many months, that there’s going to be a blue wave. There’s no question about it. There has been no question about it. The Democrat Party is poised to retake everything they can in this next election. Why? Well, the media tells us the American people are fed up.
After two years of Donald Trump, they realize the mistake they’ve made, they wish they could do it over, maybe take back their vote for Trump, and this is gonna be the first chance they’ve had to actually do that, and so the Democrats are gonna retake the House in a massive landslide, and, at one point, we’re gonna take the Senate. But if you look at the reality of voting patterns just in the past eight years, let’s say 10, there’s nothing in the world, using common sense, that augurs for a Democrat sweep or blue wave.
The trend in the past 10 years is Democrats losing elections left and right. And it all started with Barack Hussein O and 2010. Do you remember how many times I reminded you that during the first six years of Obama, you go through the 2014 midterms, the Democrat Party lost over 1,200 seats nationwide, seats in the U.S. House, seats in the U.S. Senate, statehouses, governorships. You even go to local offices like mayor or town councilman.
If you factor all of those races nationwide, the Democrats, after six years of Obama, had lost 1,200 seats. They were losing everything. After the 2016 election, they continued to laws even more, and the dead-set lock to win in a landslide Hillary Clinton got beat in a near electoral landslide, Electoral College landslide. Another election where they were gonna sweep big. They were gonna wipe out the Republican Party once and for all. Hillary Clinton was going to be this winner. They had it.
They couldn’t have had it any better. This guy Trump won the Republican nomination. Somebody didn’t know what he was doing, a gigantic buffoon, a walking set of gaffes. They thought this guy would be easily swept away. They believed all their polling data. And we know what happened. They continued to lose to the point that after the 2016 elections, the Democrat Party had the least amount of power in terms of elected offices held in Washington, D.C. since the 1920s.
Now, the 2016 election was only two years ago. So from 2010, the first chance people had to vote after having stomached two years of the Obama administration, which, you want to talk about people wanting to get their votes back? You want to talk about people wishing they could do it over? You want to talk about people wishing they hadn’t voted the way they had? Go take a look at the 2010 midterms. Barack Obama single-handedly, my friends, has destroyed the electoral prowess of the Democrat Party.
Nobody knows it because the things I just told you are never reported. Instead, what people hear every day is this coming blue wave, this gigantic Democrat landslide. On what evidence is this gonna happen? What is it that has stopped the trend? The people in this country have been voting against Democrats in ways unprecedented. I mean, to have the fewest number of electoral seats since the 1920s is pretty astounding. It means a lot of people have been voting against you. So what is it that’s happened that is going to cause this gigantic, 180-degree shift. Make people stop voting against Democrats and vote for them!
Why, it’s none other than Donald Trump.
So says the media.
So says the Democrat Party.
Well, on the basis of what? If you take a look at Trump’s agenda and the economy and policies and so forth, there’s no reason to vote against it. In common sense, there’s no reason… Trump hasn’t done anything to worsen anybody’s lives. Quite the contrary. And, in fact, there’s a story from CNBC today that you’re not gonna see widely reported. Let’s see. I probably put… Yeah. “CNBC Survey: Soaring Economic Optimism Points to No Blue Wave in 2018.” This is a CNBC poll or survey.
“America is experiencing a record-breaking era of good feelings, economically speaking. Optimism about the economy…” Do you know that there are seven million jobs open in America today? Actual number: 7,136,000 job openings in America. For context, the U.S. never had even six million vacant jobs open until April of 2017. Now we have an historic 7.1 million jobs open. That means employers are looking to hire that many people. That equals a roaring economy. That equals no problem getting a job if you want one.
With that many job openings, it is an employee’s market! If there’s that much demand for employees, the employees can set the terms based on their level of expertise and experience at whatever it is they’re applying for. None of this in the world of common sense suggests that people would be unhappy by it or about it and want to reject it. And yet that’s exactly what we’re being told, that the American people are sick and tired.
They hate Trump. They tired of Trump. They’re embarrassed by Trump. They’re embarrassed by their vote. And yet there isn’t a spittle-licking bit of evidence that people have turned around and want to vote Democrat, including the 2016 presidential election. For those of you shouting at me. (impression) “But wait, Rush. Don’t fool yourself. Hillary won the popular vote by three.” Yeah, but two things about that. Most of those votes came from California.
The second thing is that we had a story yesterday that there are three and a half million registered voters above the number of bodies in America. In other words, there are three and a half million more registered voters than there are voters. Which means there’s all kinds of fraud, potential fraud taking place. But even those two things, throw them out. It doesn’t cancel the fact that the Democrats have been losing elections left and right.
Now we have they couldn’t stop Kavanaugh, every October Surprise that they’ve tried to mount has blown up in their face, examine Elizabeth Warren is just the latest one. And this one is a giant self-immolation. She’s making an abject fool of herself.
RUSH: I’m thinking… And I’m gonna expand on this, of course. But I’m thinking nothing has changed since Barack Obama ruined the Democrat Party. Barack Obama is the reason that they lost 1,200 seats nationwide. There hasn’t been anything to change that. They lost the Supreme Court. They lost Kavanaugh. They did everything they could. He this mounted an October Surprise.
They tried to destroy the life, the career, the past, the future of Brett Kavanaugh to save the court. Nothing is going their way. They’re not winning. Meanwhile, what’s happening on the Republican side? Many of you may hate hearing it, some of you Never Trumpers. But the fact of the matter is the Republican Party is unifying. And what made that happen? The Democrats’ attempt on Kavanaugh.
The Republican Party… Mitch McConnell. Mitch McConnell, Trump brought him on stage at a rally in Kentucky. Mitch McConnell got a hero’s welcome. Mitch McConnell got a standing O (probably the first standing O in his career) in front of a stadium or arena-sized crowd. I guarantee you Mitch McConnell got the kind of warm welcome, standing ovation that he simply is not used to.
I mean, nobody else like the Turtle in our party gets those, but Trump brought him up, and he got one, and he got it precisely by holding steady in the spine on Kavanaugh. I’m telling you, Trump is, with the assistance of the Democrats’ treatment of Kavanaugh, the Republican Party, not all of it, but it’s moving toward unification, at least in terms of opposition to the Democrats. The Democrats are not unified, and 24 of them say they want to be president now?
RUSH: I want to return just for a brief moment to this notion of the blue wave and go to a couple of audio sound bites. Nate Silver. This is the guru data analyst on the left who used to be at the New York Times, and then he went to ESPN, and then he went to FiveThirtyEight, and then he went to Vox, and back to FiveThirtyEight.
FiveThirtyEight is his company, and he took it to various places. The Democrats, the rank-and-file Democrats live and die by what Nate Silver tells them. For example, Nate Silver on election night 2016, 5 p.m., gave Hillary Clinton something like an 89% chance of being elected president. So they were all thinking it was over, and the same thing is happening now. “Democrats, 73% chance of retaking the House of Representatives! Democrat voters breathing a huge sigh of relief.” Nate Silver is continuing to report that. He was on the FiveThirtyEight.com Politics Podcast, and the host was Jody Avirgan, who is a guy.
The question: “Has the gender gap increased since Kavanaugh?”
SILVER: A lot of the takes on Kavanaugh and the effect that he had are drawn by, like, male pundits who are in homosocial (snickers) networks, right, especially for Republicans where the Republican kind of consultant and pollster and expert community is very male. Journalists are pretty male. It hasn’t changed that much. Maybe a little bit improved. And so the conventional wisdom about, like, the effects Kavanaugh will have I think are governed by that a lot. In our forecast, you now see a clearer split between the House and the Senate, where the GOP Senate chances continue to improve. But the Democrats’ House chances actually are back on the upswing now, kind of since the Kavanaugh nomination.
RUSH: Uh, it’s kind of not… Like, it’s kind of just… The Kavanaugh fight has energized Republicans far more than Democrats. And all of these House races that the Democrats are assuring their voters are locks? They’re too close to call right now. There’s a whole bunch of ’em that are too close to call. This isn’t in the bag for them. But their voters need to be told that it is. They’ve set that up. They’ve been on this blue wave business for so long that if they come off of it even a bit, they cause a crisis of confidence among the Democrat Party voting base!
They can’t do that. But, folks, I’m telling you! Maybe I’m even asking for your input here. Very briefly, again: Starting in 2010, Barack Obama began the destruction of the Democrat Party as an electoral apparatus. They lost 1,200 seats between 2010 and 2016! They continued to lose seats in the 2016 race, which Trump won, which they thought was a lock/landslide win for them! The last elections that approach what’s coming up were the 2014 midterms. Obama won… Well, he didn’t win. He wasn’t on the ballot.
The midterms in that year were not the grand sweep for Obama that they were said to be. Obama presided over the systematic loss of seats by the Democrat Party, and 2016 comes along and Trump wins the presidency, and the Democrats have the least amount of electoral power in Washington since the 1920s! From that, we are supposed to believe that Donald Trump alone has provided the energy and the impetus and the vim and the vigor to reawaken the Democrats to come back, show up, and retake everything they lost.
Well, the problem with that is, the Democrats lost because Republicans won! The Republican voters showed up in droves in every one of those midterms and the presidential race in 2012. In the 2012 presidential race, the Democrats continued to lose seats. Even though Obama won his reelection, nobody else the Democrat Party did much worth bragging about. So the Republicans came alive. First, it was the Tea Party, Obamacare, and all of a sudden spending that energized it.
Then it was Lois Lerner at the IRS and all the other scandals that came along. Benghazi. There was nothing that Obama was doing. The economy was a flat line if it wasn’t deteriorating. There wasn’t anything. Obama was giving away nuclear weapons to the Iranians! He was giving away guns to Mexican drug cartels in a backdoor way to do damage to the Second Amendment. People wanted no part of what Obama was doing! Every chance they had to vote against it, they did.
Except they didn’t have the guts to vote against him because of the racial component in 2012. So now we’re supposed to believe that that trend that sees the Democrats holding the fewest number of electoral seats they’ve ever had since the 1920s, has suddenly overwhelmingly changed simply because there’s so much hatred for Donald Trump, and it’s hatred for who Trump is. It’s hatred for his tweets. It’s hatred for his personality.
It’s hatred for his manners or lack thereof. It’s hatred for the way he behaves. It’s hatred for his hairstyle. It’s hatred because of his mean-spirited whatever. That and that alone is what the media and Nate Silver are telling us augurs this massive Democrat blue wave. There is no trend that suggests Democrat blue wave. Plus, Trump is uniting the Republican Party. There’s one more Nate Silver bite here from the same podcast. He continued. Now listen….
SILVER: We’re in this weird zone. Where No. 1, I don’t remember we ever had a split in the forecast like this.
SILVER: I mean, it’s pretty unusual to predict. This likelihood of a split is unusual. We’re also… I always say we’re in the 80-20 zone and now we’re in the 80-20 zone in both places. That makes me nervous. And remember, there’s almost no chance the Democrats win the Senate but don’t win the House which means that, like, there’s a 40% chance that one of those two predictions will be wrong. So, you know, not quite 50-50. But we call somebody a toss-up that’s 40% or greater. So almost a toss-up that (chuckles) you’ll have one of these forecasts go on —
RUSH: Can I translate this for you? Let me translate this. This guy is nervous as he can be! Has a sweating bullets! There’s a 50-50 chance that he’s wrong. He’s admitting it. He’s never seen a split like this! He’s talking about Democrats winning the House; Republicans winning the Senate. He’s never seen anything like that! He doesn’t know how to factor this! And he with consider it a toss-up if it’s 40% one way or the other, but I think it’s…
He’s telling us he hasn’t the slightest idea what’s gonna happen this election! And he’s very nervous over the fact that he can’t figure out, he can’t analyze, he doesn’t have the slightest idea what’s gonna happen here! Now, he didn’t want to come out and say it that way. You need to have the talent and the expertise and experience I have to translate these clowns when they start throwing their numbers around and their percentages and stuff. But let me just go through this very quickly.
(translating) “Well, you know, we’re in this weird zone where I don’t remember we ever had a split in the forecast like this. Pretty unusual.” Yeah? A lot of things are unusual this time, aren’t they, Nate? It’s been unusual since 2016, hasn’t it? “To predict this likelihood of a split is unusual. We — you know, I always say, uh, we’re in the 80-20 zone, and we’re now in the 80-20 zone in both places. That makes me nervous!” Meaning 80-20 Republicans keep the Senate, 80-20 Democrats win the House.
That makes him nervous, 80-20?
That’s as close to a lock as you’re gonna get. It makes him nervous? We’re now in the 80-20 zone on both sides of this? “Remember, there’s almost no chance the Democrats win the Senate.” Really! “There’s no chance the Democrats win the Senate but don’t win the House which means that, like, there’s a 40% chance that one of those two predictions is gonna be wrong.” Well, there (chuckles) is a pretty good indication the Democrats are not going to win the Senate, and he’s saying it’s impossible. “If we don’t one the Senate and win the House…? (stammering)”
He doesn’t know.
His analysts are telling him it’s 80-20 both sides, but they don’t expect. It’s 50-50. 50-50 you might not even show up and go to work, folks.
If all of your analysis and all of your data collection produces it could go either way, then why is anybody paying?
RUSH: By the way, one of the reasons the Democrats are so angry, so morose, so insane — aside from the fact many of them are suffering psychological disorders — is that they know what I’ve told you is true. They’ve been losing elections left and right. Everything has been going against them, and now they’ve lost the Supreme Court seat after trying this late October Surprise to destroy Kavanaugh? I mean, folks, it all makes sense. There’s nothing about this that augurs for a blue wave.
RUSH: And even in their own polls, Trump’s approval numbers hover in the mid-forties. In Rasmussen, Trump’s at 51. They see the approval numbers for Trump in the African-American community. They see the economy.
They see… I’m telling you that they are teetering on the brink of being able to hold it all together, and it’s in this universe, framework, context, I just don’t satisfy this massive blue wave that they do, and I’m not sure they even see it. I think they’re hoping. I think it’s a birthright to them. It’s the way things ought to be, should be, and they’re gonna do everything they can to make it reality. But these are massive elections all over the country, and it’s gonna be a challenge for ’em.
We’ll see. I mean, look: It’s possible. I’m like Nate Silver; I have no idea what’s gonna happen. The only difference between Nate Silver and me is that I make no pretense of knowing what’s gonna happen. All I’m doing with you today is sharing is sharing how I break this down using common sense. I’ve got 10… (counting) 2012… It’s six years of on-the-ground, actual experience of Democrats losing elections, of people turning against them, of Democrats having fewer seats, electoral seats in Washington than they’ve had since the 1920s.
And I don’t see anything that’s gonna reverse that. Barack Hussein O single-handedly made this happen. Barack Obama’s presidency is what turned people against the Democrat Party. And it was based on substance, ’cause Obama was a likable guy, and he was African-American. You check off a box: “I’m not racist. Look at this! I voted for Obama.” And still when people had the chance they voted against every aspect of the Obama agenda they could! Where is Obama, by the way, campaigning for all these Democrats trying to retake the House and Senate?
Where is he? Where’s Plugs? Beto O’Rourke… Have you heard about this? Beto O’Rourke is following the Obama mold. Beto O’Rourke raised $38 million in the third quarter. He has been asked by Democrats to share some of that money for other races which are close, and Beto has told them to go pound sand. Beto has told them (paraphrased), “If your elections are that important then go raise the money yourself. I’m gonna spend this the way I want. I’m gonna use this the way I want. It’s not my job to raise money for you.”
Exactly what Obama said! People will remember this. He resented the hell out of having to go campaign for House races. He thought it was so beneath him! He wanted no part of campaigning for House races and very little to do with campaigning for Senate races, ’cause it was beneath the office of the presidency to go that low. The real reason he didn’t want to do is is Obama didn’t have confidence of coattails, and Beto is not gonna want to share any of his money. Not being a good socialist.
He’s got all this money. It’s not fair that Beto, who’s… By the way, what is he down seven or eight points now in the latest poll? It’s not fair that Beto has more than he needs and won’t share it with other needy Democrats. But that’s what he’s saying that he won’t do.
RUSH: Here is Bert in Maine. Welcome, Bert. Great to have you with us on the program. Hi.
CALLER: Hey, dittos, Rush.
RUSH: Thank you!
CALLER: Thanks for your program. Thanks for your common sense and going across America with your voice.
RUSH: I appreciate that very much. Thank you.
CALLER: Longtime listener, first-time caller. I just wanted to make a couple points.
CALLER: Democrats are eight full of Sparticans, Pocahontases, and Da Nang Dicks. I think that these are state elections, and I think the word’s gotta go out to vote Republican, ’cause I believe if they take the House, they’re not only gonna roll back Trump’s tax cuts and roll back all his work. They’re gonna put the hammer down on the people that voted for him, such as Lois Lerner and the IRS scandal. I think they’re gonna hurt the base.
RUSH: I don’t think there’s any question about that. In fact, I am working on a list of things that you can expect — that we all can expect to happen and to change — if the Democrats win the House. Doesn’t matter what happens in the Senate. If the Democrats win the House, the things they are gonna do, the things they have planned.