RUSH: We are one week away from the election, and what do you think is gonna happen? I went to an event out there last night. I’ve not been going to too many events, but I went to an event last night, and I can’t tell you the number of people I ran into… These are donors. I went to a donor event. A bunch of people said, “I think there’s gonna be a red wave like you can’t believe!” I tried a test on ’em.
Rather than join them in their enthusiasm, I tried to talk ’em down a little bit. I just wanted to test whether they were being emotional or whether they actually thought it out. So I ran into, “It’s gonna be a red wave. It’s gonna be big! It’s gonna shock everybody. People are gonna be stunned just like they were two years ago.” I said, “Okay. Well, I hope you’re right, but let me give you some facts on the ground.”
RUSH: So I ran into these people at the event last night. “It’s gonna be a red wave, Rush! I listen to you every day, and I’m telling you, it’s gonna be a red wave.” I said, “I hope you’re right, but let me tell you what we’re up against. Forty-five Republicans have announced their resignations. Forty-five! I mean, that is a huge number. Many of them are committee chairmen. Not all, but many of them are committee chairmen and they are resigning or retiring because they don’t want to go back to being chumps — you know, just regular House members.
“It’s a big come-down; so they want to try to parlay their years in the House into private sector success.” I said, “Forty-five seats! Incumbency has incredible power, reelection power.” Snerdley will back me up on this. He’s a student. “The incumbent in House races wins 98% of the time. Well, we’ve got 45 Republicans who are not incumbents. We’ve got 45 Republicans who’ve never run before. Nobody knows them. I mean, in their districts they’re known, but they’re not as known as incumbents are known, not as well known.”
So that makes some of this somewhat iffy, and then there is the traditional statistical aspect which says that the party that holds the White House in the first midterms after a presidential election always loses seats. So 45 seats vacated, tough to defend. As opposed to if those 45 had not resigned and were still in the House, you could count a lot of those as reelects that you can’t count now as rereelects. This is what the left and the Drive-Bys are counting on, because many of those 45 will flip.
And then you’ve got contestable races in other parts. The Senate, of course, is another thing. Now, I mentioned this to all these people; they didn’t care. They said they are aware of this. They knew about the resigning members of Congress, retiring members. They didn’t know the number, not all of them did. But their attitude was that it doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter. The American people are fed up and they are sophisticated, and the people who elected Trump know exactly what’s at stake. They’re not gonna sit home.
They’re not gonna twiddle their thumbs. They’re not confident. They’re not sitting there thinking the job was done when they went and voted in 2016. It was kind of pleasant to hear. Although there was a lot of emotion in it; I can’t deny that. Now, interestingly, I ran across a piece today at a website called GreatNewsForAmerica.com, and it’s by Dr. Gerard Francis Lameiro, “expert on forecast models.” I’m not familiar with his work, but his headline is, “Red Wave Coming in the House and Senate — My forecast for the 2018 Congressional Elections.”
He says, “There will be a Conservative Red Wave in the House with 225 — 228 Republicans elected to office and in the Senate with 58 – 60 Republicans elected to office. Let’s look at some of the reasons that went into the forecast,” Dr. Lameiro writes. “As you remember from my book Great News for America…” (laughing) “As you remember from my book Great News for America, the presidential election of 2016 was both an historic and critical presidential election that ushered in a new American Constitutional Era that I called the Conservative Era.
“Long-range trends as well as short-range trends came together to cause a fundamental shift in each of our two major political parties. In addition, other major changes took place as well. Those were predicted and explained… In addition to lower Democrat Voter Intensity among Democrat voters, Democrats have another major problem. There are movements of Democrat voters that are abandoning their party and voting for Conservatives,” and it’s all being ignored, he says, by the Drive-By Media.
“Three such movements are: #WalkAway Movement. #RedPill Movement. #GreatAwakening Movement,” and he goes on to describe what these are. (interruption) I am… No, I’m unfamiliar with “RedPill Movement.” But says he’s got “eight new predictions that will happen in the near future. These predictions appear to be happening as we approach” the midterm elections. “[W]e have witnessed a series of Fall surprises, including: September Surprise – Brett Kavanaugh Hearings. October Surprises: Caravan Crisis. Mail Bombs to Some Democrats. Synogogue [sic] Mass Shooting.
“[W]e have seen an outstanding economy, tempered by considerable volatility on Wall Street. We have also seen the extreme bias…” That’s another thing. You know what? The consumer confidence numbers are over the top. The Conference Board, consumer confidence numbers are over the top. These numbers are not the kind of numbers you see in an electorate that’s unhappy and angry and looking for radical change.
At least that has been the case in the past. The question comes down to just how important a factor is the economy in elections of candidates in this climate. The Drive-Bys would like you to believe the economy doesn’t matter a hill of beans, but they always say that when the economy is going great with Republican administrations. The effort to give credit to Obama, the attempt by Obama to take credit for the economy, however, would argue that Democrats and the media think it is a problem.
There’s talk all over Twitter that Hollywood leftists are promising blood in the streets if Democrats do not win the House. Anyway, back to our prediction here from this doctor, Dr. Gerard Francis Lameiro. “What has been the Impact of these Fall Surprises and Other Events?” This is his personal thinking — and again, these events…
These “fall surprises,” he calls them; we call them “October Surprises.” The Kavanaugh hearings. That was… We know what that was now. I mean, that was totally trumped up, made-up charges to derail Trump’s Supreme Court nominee along the way toward derailing Trump. We had the October Surprises, the usual… The caravan crisis, mail bombs to some Democrats, synagogue mass shooting. “What has been the Impact of these Fall Surprises and Other Events?
“While intended to hurt President Trump and keep Republicans from holding the House … all the above surprises and events have worked to enhance the Conservative Red Wave,” according to this guy. “Instead of creating or building a Blue Wave, the Red Wave continues. Republican Voter Intensity exceeds the much heralded … Blue Wave.” By the way, this is… You know what a blue wave would be? We need to properly define it.
A blue wave would mean the Democrats win everything. They take back the Senate; they take back the House by a large number. If the Democrats win the House by two or three seats, for example, that’s not a blue wave. A blue wave means a massive, massive realignment. And it doesn’t look possible they’re gonna win the Senate. If they don’t win the Senate, there isn’t any blue wave. I’m talking about in reality. Not in terms of media lingo. They’ll call it whatever they want if they emerge victorious.
But all of these events were designed to cause this blue wave, were designed to create this massive voter intensity and turnout by Democrats. And even now in the early voting, Republican turnout is much larger than Democrat turnout, unheralded. That’s unprecedented. Republicans seldom show up this well in early voting. It’s hard to explain it away. But the conclusion is, “There has been no Blue Wave this year. There has been no Blue Ripple this year.”
In fact, you might even say, “[t]here has been no Blue Drip this year. Plus, even some Blue Bubbles are bursting. Recall that Blue Bubbles are areas of Blue support, such as a long-time Blue Congressional District in a major coastal city.” So this guy is of the firm belief that a conservative red wave or Republican red wave is coming and is on the way. Many other people are… I’ve heard some people say, “Rush, look, you’ve gotta be very, very careful. Those 45 Republican retirements? That’s a toss-up.
“We don’t know how to factor all of that. That’s more retirements in a single year than we are ever used to having to factor in here, and the power of incumbency in those 45 seats has been lost.” I think, by the way, the political professionals are going to be hyping the fact that as things stand now… It’s probably what you’re gonna hear from a lot of places. (impression) “As things stand now, it looks like the Democrats might win the House by two, maybe four seats.”
That’s gonna be designed to get you to not get lazy and overconfident. Don’t be dispirited by any of that you hear. The evidence that there is no blue wave is the evidence of panic that is prevalent throughout the Drive-By Media, because their efforts to derail Trump have failed. Every one of them, including the big one: Forcing Trump out of office because he supposedly colluded with the Russians. Robert Mueller was supposed to have delivered the goods.
The special counsel by now was supposed to have cooked Trump. Trump was supposed to be on the way out by now. Do not doubt me. That’s what everybody on the left held out great hope for in the special counsel investigation. Barring an actual report, they have been hoping and praying for a leak that would be indicative that the report does say that Mueller found hard evidence that Trump and Putin cheated and stole the election from the clutches of the Hildebeast.
But there aren’t even any such leaks. That’s the big one that has blown up. Do not doubt me on this. By now, Mueller was supposed to have delivered the goods. The Drive-By Media was supposed to have delivered the leaks. So now it’s off to Plan B and Plan C and so forth, and that’s why I say that there’s kind of.. It’s obvious panic. It also argues against the fact that they feel confident in a blue wave.
RUSH: By the way, some of these 45 retiring Republicans — some of them — were RINOs. They’re not at all not total losses. There were a lot of Never Trumpers in there, and that’s one of the reasons they retired. I would be remiss if I didn’t mention this. There were a lot of them. I don’t know about the total number of 45, but a lot of them quit because they were just fed up that Trump won and that Trump was leading the Republican Party and they didn’t want anything to do with it.
Some of them were committee chairmen and decided they weren’t gonna go back to just being regular House bozos. Because it’s such a come-down, you know, to have been a committee chairman; then go back to being just a regular bencher or back bencher. In their place — and this augurs well. In their place, many of the Republican who got the primary nominations to replace these Never Trumpers who are retiring, are Trump supporters. They are Trumpists. So the total number of 45 resigning is not in and of itself a completely negative characteristic.
The power of incumbency still can’t be denied. It’s an amazing thing. I think it’s still true. House races, in 98% of them, the incumbent wins. Every year — year in, year out — regardless. There might be a year or two where a larger, wider variance than that, but that’s the overall stat. But it could well be that the Never Trumpers that retired knew they had no prayer anyway in their district, and so they, quote-unquote, “took the high road.” They can’t stomach Trump. “Trump’s buffoon. I don’t want to be part of part of it!” So they split the scene and they’re replaced by Trumpists and Trump supporters.
So that could the end being a net positive.
When we come back, the Drive-By Media are all over now blaming me. We’re back… First it was the Oklahoma City Bombing, and now me and others in conservative media being blamed for all of the rest of this today.