RUSH: Some economic news. "The number of people seeking unemployment benefits dipped slightly last week, though not by enough to suggest that hiring is picking up. Weekly applications for unemployment benefits declined 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 402,000." Still over 400,000.
Now, folks, for the last two weeks I have seen e-mails. Gallup has subscribers. You can be an e-mail subscriber. I don't think it costs anything. It's just like checking off a box on their website and they'll send you updates, newsletters, whatever it is. For the last two weeks I have seen unemployment data, little blurbs three or four lines from Gallup, and the one that came in just today predicts, based on their own unemployment figures, Gallup's, their own surveys, they are expecting the government to report an unemployment figure of under 9% this week.
Then there is a story out there that the US economy has expanded at a two and a half percent rate. This is a Wall Street Journal news alert: "US Gross domestic product grew at an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 2.5% from July through September, the strongest performance in a year." Where? Where is this 2.5% government growth? Nobody sees it. And if the unemployment rate, if Gallup's right, and this story from AP does not tend to indicate that that's gonna be true, I mean if we're still at 402,000 applications for unemployment. And you know this is gonna be revised upward next week. They're always wrong on the low side. So, if this week's new claims number is revised up by the amount it usually is, it will turn out to have gone up.
Now, for the record, the previous week's number was revised up, of course, always is. Not reported. They revised it by 1,000 last week, which is lower than the usual 3,000 to 4,000 that they revise it by. But we're still over 400,000, 402,000. Folks, I'm waiting for this. Remember, now, the reelect magic number on unemployment is 8%. No president has ever been reelected in the modern era with the unemployment rate higher than 8%. And if the unemployment number gets below nine, if it's 8.9% -- forget the .9 -- all the media is gonna see is that 8. And they're gonna go to town with it. And they're gonna say, "It's finally working. The first stimulus." And so the reelection campaign premise of "I need more time" will be set up, will be established. "We thought this would happen sooner than it's happening. We need more time."
Remember, my original forecast and prediction on what the Obama reelection campaign would basically be is "It was worse than we thought, normally our fixes, our stimulus would have kicked in immediately, but it was so much worse than we knew, it's taking that much longer. And now that it's just starting to work, now that we're just seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, is this the time to change horses? We don't want to change horses in the middle of the stream." That will be combined with massive attacks on whoever the Republican nominee is. So if they can get that unemployment number at any time between now and next summer to eight point whatever, the reality on the ground isn't gonna matter a hill of beans to the media. The optics, to be able to say unemployment under 9%, there's the magic number. Forget the .9, forget if it's .8, forget that, it's eight, after being nine two, nine four, nine one. It's finally working! Obamanomics finally working. It took longer than we thought. We need more time.
So when I saw that coupled with this expansion rate, the growth rate of two and a half percent, where is the growth? If there is such growth, it is on the public sector side, it's on the government side. There is no private sector growth. When Gibson guitar has its door kicked down and its wood removed, who do they thank? When the borders are not secured, illegal aliens pour over, the drug lords are sold automatic weapons at the direction of the government, who do we thank again? When our public schools fail to educate a large percentage of the children who attend them, who do we thank? When government policy destroys the housing market, who do we thank for this? When our health care costs skyrocket as a result of Obamacare, who do we thank for this?
To whom do we show our gratitude? To whom do we express our appreciation? As for the cops, would this be the same cops that are being attacked by the left for trying to keep peace and order down there at Occupy Wall Street and Oakland, wherever it is? These Occupy crowds are now starting to make mayhem. Who do we thank here for this? To whom do we bestow the credit for all of this? Obama and his regime. That's who.
RUSH: I just got this from ABC News. The GDP surged two and a half percent, according to State-Controlled ABC, not credited to Obama policy yet. "John Bowler, the director of Country Risk Service with The Economist Intelligence Unit said that purchasing managers' indices --" for those of you in Rio Linda, that's the plural of "index." It just doesn't sound good to say indexes, although you probably do. It's "indices." Anyway, "-- for the manufacturing and the services sectors had suggested an improvement in September's activity. Private consumption and industrial production have been rising. He said that on balance the data suggests some improvement in economic conditions which can largely be traced to a fall in oil prices in recent months.
"The resolution of supply chain bottlenecks stemming from the natural disasters in Japan and an end to the uncertainty created by the debt ceiling debate in Congress in early August, employers created a total of 103,000 jobs in September which Bowler called a mildly encouraging sign, but he said at least 150,000 jobs will need to be created each month if the unemployment rate is to start falling. Bowler said he sees little reduction in the jobless rate over the next 18 months." I'm still telling you, folks, Gallup for two weeks in a row now has sent out the little blurb here, based on their own unemployment number survey where they clearly predict -- well, they don't predict but they say that it wouldn't be surprising if the government reports an unemployment number of under 9%. Even this week, even tomorrow. We shall see.