RUSH: Let me tell you something here, folks, very quickly before we go to the thing I promised to do. The difference here at the moment is a lot of the Republican establishment -- the insiders, the Republicans who want to keep spending money -- see Newt as a disaster waiting to happen for THEM: for their futures, for their political opportunity, for their chance to win the Senate and the committee chairmanships and be in control of the money. But a large part of the Republican rank and file, a large part of the Republican base don't see Newt as the answer. That's not what's going on here. The Tea Party/Republican base voters are trying to send a message to the establishment, and Newt is the guy doing it.
The Tea Party, the Republican base know they've got nothing without the Republican Party. You can't go third party. This internecine stuff has gotta stop. Newt is articulating what the base thinks about our op-po-si-tion! Newt is telling the Republican establishment and the media and the consultants, "This is how we view the opposition! This is how we want you to view the opposition. This is how we want to campaign against the opposition. Now, you go find a candidate we can support! Don't give us somebody who's not gonna do this! Don't give us somebody who doesn't believe this. Don't give us some namby-pamby wimp who is scared that everything he does is gonna anger somebody.
"We are angry! You don't care about our anger? Well, we are angry, and we're on your team -- and what we want is somebody who is gonna represent us," and right now Newt is not getting these votes because there's a wild, uncontrollable desire for Newt Gingrich to be president. It's the message that he's sending. He is speaking for millions of Republicans here. They see the way Newt's doing things as a solution, and as a strategy for victory over Barack Obama. Newt's a messenger. There's nobody else on that dais at a Republican debate that does it this way. The closest anybody gets to it is Santorum.
Now, back on November 10th, on this program, I said, "You always think Republicans are all on the same side, same objectives. No way. No way. They want to win certain things. Some of our guys, I'm telling you, do not think Obama's beatable. Now, I know it makes no sense. They live in Washington. It makes sense if you live in Washington. It makes sense if all your friends are the liberal media. It makes sense if that's your life, that Obama can't lose. Obama's God! If you live in Washington, if that's your life, it makes total sense. If you don't think that any of these conservatives can beat him, then you're gonna go pick the guy who can help your candidates for the Senate and the House win so that you can chalk up some victories for your business.
"You are assuming that everybody's on the same team here. I have observed that with the death of Ronald Reagan and with the death of William Buckley, it's wide open. There's no discipline on the team. There is nobody that sets the agenda. Everybody is trying to be the smartest kid in the room or the power broker or what have you. It's patently obvious." This was November 10th. In fact, this is how the monologue started. I said, "The official program observer has a question. What's the question?" and the question was, "Both parties have had trifectas and both have lost. You mean consultants, why do they try go be more moderate or candidates in general? ... I think they really believe that the twenty percent is where every election's won.
"And I think they believe that they are moderates, that they're not wacko conservatives or wacko leftists, and that most people are like them. Snerdley is so disturbed of my analysis of a half hour ago, of why the Republican establishment is ripping into all of our conservative candidates," and Snerdley was disturbed by it, and this is what he was disturbed by. I said, "Folks, now on to the Republican Party. There's a shock poll. South Carolina primary: Herman Cain 26, Romney 25." This is November 10th, now, folks, I want you to remember what happened. Herman Cain was up in November in South Carolina, and then somebody found the women. "Herman Cain 26, Romney 25, Perry at 15. In Virginia, Cain and Romney are tied."
This is polling data last November 10th. Now, why is it a "shock" poll? Why is this a shock? Here we have an articulate, principled, no-establishment conservative, Herman Cain leading in a poll before a Republican primary. "What's the surprise?" I asked. "Now, these polls don't record the preferences of establishment Republicans. They reflect the thinking of individual Republicans leading their individual lives. Perry, Cain, Bachmann, you name it, the establishment is trying to get this wrapped up next week. They want to move the primaries up. They want this done and over. The Republican establishment is trying to take full advantage of this chaos to nail this down and end it. They want Romney to be the nominee, and that's it, and I don't care who the conservative is.
"Just to make the point again: What they want is somebody they think will not lose the House and might help 'em win the Senate." November 10th I told you this, and I have been saying it every day since -- and even prior to November 10th, I alluded to this. When Rick Perry got in the race I told you how this was gonna upset the Republican establishment. I know who I'm talking about, here, and I know what their objectives are; and their number one objective, folks, is not beating Obama. They're not convinced it can happen! They're political professionals and experts. "He's an incumbent; he's African-American. That means we can't criticize him.
"That means he's gonna get the welfare state vote." They think that they can't compete, and the only chance they've got is with moderate independents -- and you conservatives scare of the independents because you're racist, sexist, bigot, homophobe pro-lifers. They live in fear of you. So South Carolina sends a message. "Really? Well, fine, okay. Here you go, establishment," and Newt Gingrich won every congressional district. He won the independents. He won the female vote. How did the media handle that? "Well, sure in the state where they love cockfights, what the hell do you expect?" That's the reaction! Who set that one up? Howard Fineman in a TV appearance last week, "Oh, well, it's South Carolina!"
Gloria Borger on CNN after the debate Thursday night (shrill, high-pitched Gloria Borger voice), "Well, Newt may do okay here but when you get outside South Carolina -- you know, where they have cockfights and so forth -- I don't think, John, that women are particularly going to, you know -- ha-hah! -- care about Newt Gingrich." That's the media line. So media says that, they insult South Carolina as being a bunch of people that like cockfights and NASCAR, and look what happened! And this is what would happen all over the country. The Republican base all over this country has been called a bunch of hick cockfight-lovers.
Not just the people in South Carolina. They've been called a bunch of hayseed, nobody, pro-lifer, drunks, whatever for 25 years, when they look at themselves as the backbone of the country. They're the ones playing by the rules. They're the ones trying to do everything as best they can, and they know they don't succeed, but they are not purposely throwing their lives away. They are not purposely trying to ruin the culture of this country. They see people who are get raised up, elevated, made heroes. They're sick of it! They simply want their country saved. So a guy comes along and makes 'em think he can articulate the message that can get this guy out of the White House and maybe some sanity back to the country. That's all that's going on.
RUSH: Now we get to the other stuff that I promised you about. December 5th on this program.
RUSH ARCHIVE: I think they are more concerned, our consultants, with holding the House and winning the Senate. I think they believe, deep down in the depths of their soul, that Obama can't be beat. I think that they look at Mitt Romney as the single only hope we have of taking Senate, even if he loses the presidential race. They're looking at Romney not because he can beat Obama but because he can limit the damage in the Senate and House races, which is what they really want. I do believe that in some cases -- and I'm not prepared to name names right now. I do believe in some cases on our side they would rather Obama win than a full-throated conservative beat him, because they don't control the conservatives. They don't control the Tea Party. They don't control where that victorious conservative cad would coming from.
RUSH: That's the statement about the Republican establishment. That's December the 5th, and I first postulated this theory on November 10th of last year. Here we go. Saturday night, MSNBC's special coverage of the South Carolina primary. Rachel Maddow had as one of her guests Steve Schmidt, McCain's campaign manager. (big sigh) You know, I have a logical question -- and I must tell you, I've got nothing against Steve Schmidt. I don't know him. I've never met him. I've had a couple e-mail back-and-forths during the 2008 campaign, but I don't... (groans) This is so hard to say. What do people who ran LOSING campaigns have to offer? It's like, why would Romney openly put McCain on stage with him in New Hampshire, which he had in the tank anyway?
He was the favorite son and was supposed to win New Hampshire. He's leading. Nothing could have stopped it. Why put the 2008 loser -- and somebody that you know the Republican base does not like -- front and center on stage with you endorsing you? Would somebody explain the thinking? I've never understood it. Bob Shrum is a constant guest. He's never won a presidential race for any candidate that hired him, and he's up there as an expert. It would be like having somebody in last place in primetime tell you how to finish first. (interruption) McCain is a symbol to Romney? McCain is a symbol... (interruption) Well, okay. (interruption) All right. (interruption) You really think that?
If that's true, then they're dumber than I thought. Snerdley just told me that the reason that they put McCain up there to endorse Romney is to basically jam it down our throats. You think that that was an insult, that Romney getting McCain up there to endorse him was the Republican establishment saying to us, "(raspberry) you!" That's...? (interruption) Okay. The theory is that you put McCain up there to endorse Romney because you're sending a message to the independents, "See, we're the reasonable ones. We're the ones who will bend over, grab the ankles, and work with you." Well! If that's true, then I'm even more right about why the base is doing what they're doing in these primaries. I'm even more right than I knew if that's right.
Anyway, I don't mean any of this to be insulting. I'm asking just from a business standpoint: Why would you have a coach who has lost every Super Bowl he's been in as an analyst to tell you how to do it? At any rate, he's a nice guy, don't misunderstand, Steve Schmidt. I allowed myself to get off point. Rachel Maddow said to Steve Schmidt, "Put yourself in the Republican..." Oh well, here's the answer. Okay, okay. I shoulda read the question. He's from the establishment. That's why they wanted him. Okay. Okay, okay. "Put yourself in the Republican establishment's shoes, Steve. What's the panic button that you hit if you're really freaked out that Newt is gonna get this nomination now?"
SCHMIDT: We're probably moving towards a declaration of war on Newt Gingrich by the Republican establishment. And if Newt Gingrich is able to win the Florida primary, you will see a panic and a meltdown of the Republican establishment that is beyond my ability to articulate in the English language. People will go crazy.
RUSH: He's right. He's exactly right about that. It's already happening. He is already right. It is already happening. That was the point of my monologue in the first hour of the program. There already is that panic. They're already trying to get Mitch Daniels. "Calls Renew for Mitch Daniels to Enter Presidential Race -- An online petition for the Indiana governor to 'Run, Mitch, Run!' launched at 8 p.m. Saturday evening, shortly after former House Speaker Newt Gingrich was declared the winner of the South Carolina primary.
"Over 1,000 people have since signed the petition to date." A thousand people? That's big. A thousand people signed an online petition since eight o'clock Saturday night. Big whoop. Okay. So who's the next one? Maddow said, "Okay, is there a component of that which is believe a firewall around Romney, protecting him? We saw the establishment trying to do that; Romney helping saying, 'You can't talk any smack about Bain. Bain's what I want to run on. It has to be positive. Don't undercut that at all,' which to me was like flashing a red, neon arrow: 'Here's my glass jaw. Please don't hit it.' Is there a way to protect Romney other than this wrong approach they've taken on Bain?"
SCHMIDT: Newt Gingrich has a 100% name ID, has a 60% national unfavorable number and it’s a number that’s so high that with the 100% name ID it’s just impossible to come back from. You’re not electable in a general election in a 2012 presidential election if your unfavorable numbers are that high. There are 33 House Republicans in districts that Barack Obama won. What is the impact in terms of Republicans being able to keep the House of Representatives in majority control if Newt Gingrich was the nominee of the party? What is the impact in the United State Senate races where Republicans have a great chance of taking majority control of the United States Senate. With Newt Gingrich as the nominee of the party, that is, perhaps, all up in the air.
RUSH: See? See? My point, it's all about the Senate and the House. Is there anything in here about beating Obama? Not much. Senate and the House, I told you back on November 10th. Gingrich can't win. He can't get the independents, he just did. He can't get the women, he just did. There's no way he can win. Romney, who's nine out of 25, there's our winner. Don't doubt us. Brit Hume, Saturday night, Fox's election coverage had this to say.
HUME: Newt Gingrich, 27% favorable, 56% unfavorable. Believe me, Republicans in Congress will be terrified to run with this man for fear they will lose the House and the Senate. They will begin to do what they can to try to defeat him because they fear he can't win the election and moreover he may drag many of them down to defeat with him.
RUSH: Inside-the-Beltway conventional wisdom, folks. Newt can't win. They'll lose the House and the Senate. It's a blood bath, it's over. This is the worst that could possibly happen. It's a full-fledged panic. Didn't the establishment say they wanted Mitch Daniels back last summer because Romney wasn't exciting enough? They wanted Mitch Daniels, that's who they really wanted. They really wanted Mitch Daniels. But everybody knew he wasn't gonna run because his wife didn't want any part of it. We knew this last spring. Back on May 9th, 2011, on this show, I said this, quoting the Washington Post: "There's a blog published by Chris Cillizza. It's obvious both Republican Washington insiders as well as Democrat power brokers want the nominee to be Mitch Daniels."
What were Hillary's negative numbers in 2008? Weren't they pretty high? Did the Democrat elites try to take her out? Well, some did. Some did 'cause there was some Democrat elites that didn't like the Clintons, didn't want to be beholden to the Clintons. This intrigue goes on in both parties. Always has. Party establishments are what they are. But you can see, I'm just playing sound bites here to confirm for you that I knew what I was talking about back in November. Mitt Romney is there to save the House and win the Senate. And Newt, absolute panic, because if they lose the House and don't control the Senate, they lose their chance to be in charge of the money. Here's another Republican consultant, Mike Murphy. This is on Meet the Press Sunday, David Gregory, the Obama acolyte said, "Do you think Romney should triangulate, go more to the middle even for the rest of the primaries? Why and how?"
MURPHY: Well, after he's got it locked, the Newt message is Democrats win the House; we lose the Senate in a general election. It would be a train wreck. Romney can't be contaminated by that, either. It's a very tough course for him.
RUSH: There you have it. Murphy is a Republican consultant. He's one of the guys that goes out and tells candidates, "Elect me, I can tell you how to win the independents. That's my job. I'm better at it than anybody else. I'll get you 20% of the moderates and the independents." He was with McCain. He was also the guy who said, "All right, fine, you think Christine O'Donnell, I'll sit here and sip my cocktail, go ahead, you think you can tell her how to win, you go ahead and do it, I'll sit here in Georgetown and sip my cocktail." Romney should go more to the middle for the rest of the primaries. That's the advice. That's what they tried to do to get him the nomination.
My point is they tried to get Romney to win as a moderate in the primaries, not as a conservative. That's where all was blown. Their whole theory and strategy, as many conservative in the primaries as possible, split the conservative vote, Romney wins by default, and that's all blown up. So here's Murphy, the Newt message is Democrats win the House back, we lose the Senate, it would be a train wreck. I'm just playing these bites 'cause I warned you people, I told you back in November, that's what this was all about. I'm just trying to get you to know who your party is, that's all. That's it, pure and simple.
RUSH: On Sunday, is it This Week with Christiane Amanpour, or is she gone yet? Stephanopoulos is back, University of Chicago, then Good Morning America, and then back to the Clinton campaign, wherever that needs work done. Stephanopoulos says to George Will, "They are banking on Florida being the backstop, big state money, work for Romney, stop Newt, 200,000 people already voted. That could be tough for Newt to overcome. He's been working the absentees," Romney is. "It's a closed primary. I think the Romney campaign had been counting on Jeb Bush giving them an endorsement. He said last night he's going to stay neutral."
WILL: Here's a small sliver of a silver lining for Mitt Romney. All across the country this morning people are waking up who are running for office as Republicans, from dogcatcher to Senate, and they're saying, "Good God, Newt Gingrich might be at the top of this ticket."
RUSH: Oh, yeah, man, it's true. All over America there's abject fear in every Republican precinct that Newt Gingrich may be the nominee. Stop and think, how could Newt be the nominee if there is such fear on the Republican side? How do those two go together? No, I know, the Republican establishment is one thing. I guess what I'm trying to illustrate here is the Republican establishment is quite a ways away from the voters. Alex Castellanos, a Republican consultant, was on CNN Saturday night. Anderson Cooper said, "How much does Newt's margin of victory matter here?"
CASTELLANOS: If Newt wins this by double digits then I think it's a serious blow, and Romney, there are gonna be phone calls going out to Jeb Bush and Bobby Jindal tonight, wondering if anybody else wants to buy a ticket on the train to the GOP nomination here.
RUSH: Yeah, and that, of course, leaves out Mitch Daniels. Let's listen to Scarborough Sunday morning on Meet the Press about Newt.
SCARBOROUGH: Newt's not a conservative. He uses this resentment, the politics of grievance, to actually hide a record that you can really identify very quickly on Google. You know, the remarkable thing, and this is why Republicans are panicked in Washington, DC, for good reason. Yeah, Mitt Romney supported an individual mandate. Newt Gingrich supported an individual mandate. Newt Gingrich supported cap and trade at one point. So did Mitt Romney. It is a mess out there and I think you're gonna hear more people like Bill Kristol, Erick Erickson talking about a brokered convention. If Newt Gingrich wins Florida, everything's up for grabs.
RUSH: Yeah, if Newt wins Florida, boy, it's all over, everything's up for grabs, brokered convention. Except there aren't any brokers other than the delegates who are pledged on the first vote. But, as you know, the party can make any change it wants any time no matter what.
RUSH: All right, one more Scarborough sound bite, and then we go to your phone calls. Wouldn't it be nice if the Republican elite were unhappy with Newt because he's not conservative enough? That's not why they're unhappy with him. Here's Scarborough. This is his explanation about what's going on out there in terms of the panic.
SCARBOROUGH: The party base is revolting, but they're revolting against the Washington Republican establishment anointing Mitt Romney. Now, Mitt Romney could attack Newt for not being a conservative 'cause Newt is not a conservative. Google it. We ran him out of Congress in 1998 'cause he sold us out on taxes, he sold us out on spending. He went to the floor and he sided with Democrats on his last speech, calling us the perfectionist caucus. He'd call us jihadists. He's not a conservative. He's an opportunist.
RUSH: Joe Scarborough -- and he was part of the freshman class of 1994 -- there was a lot of anger at Newt. Newt's ego got the best of him, got hold of him. I remember Newt in May of 1995, he'd been Speaker five months, predicting he was gonna be president. May of 1995. Oh, yeah, I'm gonna be president. He was thinking about it then. Anyway, so we set it all up now. I wanted to take the occasion to explain it all to you. And this stuff is all gonna shake out, folks. It's all okay out there. I know you're thinking, "My God, Rush, everybody on our side is flawed. Romney is not a conservative. Newt may not be, but Newt's a wacko, this or that. Santorum can't seem to... oh, God, Rush, what's gonna happen?" Don't forget who we're running against. We are not running against The Messiah. We are not running against God, just somebody who thinks he is. Don't panic, folks. This is the system, it's how it all works.