There’s No Post-Debate Bounce for Obama Because Obama Didn’t Win the Debate
Oct 19, 2012
RUSH: Okay, we’ve got the daily Gallup poll. Yesterday it was Obama down by seven. The day before it was Obama down six, likely voters. Today, 51-45 Romney, six points. There’s a piece in TheHill.com by A.B. Stoddard. You’re starting to see more people write about how Obama’s losing it, losing the momentum. Not the election yet, but losing the momentum. The bloom’s off the rose. These kinds of stories are being written a little bit more frequently here. In this Gallup poll, this is post-debate now, post-debate number two. They’re also learning there wasn’t a bounce out of debate two. There was not. Don’t doubt me. I’m just telling what the pollsters are saying. No bounce for Obama after the debate.
Why was there was no bounce? It’s like I told you he didn’t do well. That was my whole point the day after. The only people who thought he won the thing are the inside-the-Beltway eggheads, who are scoring it in ways that the American people don’t look at these debates. Points? I’m telling you, Romney is not gonna be penalized for not refuting an Obama lie. Obama telling the lie is the penalty. Romney is not gonna be penalized by voters because he doesn’t refute an Obama lie, but these guys score that debate, “Yeah, boy, Romney really blew it. Obama got away with a big whopper there, minus two for Mitt.” No, it doesn’t work that way. Minus one for Obama for telling the lie, minus one for Obama because Candy Crowley was on his side. The whole next day was about how that whole thing was a lie.
The reason there’s no bounce is because he didn’t win it, contrary to what the political class thinks. I told you that. Are you asking me this just to irritate me ’cause you like the show when I get irritated? Is that what you’re doing in there? You just wanted to hear it? All right. He knew. He knew. You’re goading me in there. So the bottom line here is that Obama still 45%; Romney still over 50%.
Let’s go to Bob Beckel yesterday on Fox News channel’s The Five. The Co-Host Andrea “Tarantula” is speaking to Bob Beckel about the Gallup poll. Yesterday it’s seven points. And Andrea Tarantula says, “You have to admit, Bob, there is panic out there. I talked to a senior Democrat in the greenroom a couple of hours ago. I said, ‘Shoot straight with me, how much panic is there?’ And this Democrat, Bob, told me that there’s a lot.”
BECKEL: If I were looking at those numbers and I was managing a presidential campaign, I would be upset. If those numbers are correct, it is over. It is over. So, I mean, you’re not gonna bring Romney back under 50% from 52. Not a challenger candidate. If that’s correct. I have a great deal of admiration for Gallup, but you gotta remember it is outside the margin of error, plus or minus 4%. So it may be 48. I don’t know the answer to that.
RUSH: One thing: I don’t want anybody going to town yet, because Gallup’s the only poll saying this. It’s the only one. The others have it either Romney 49-48 or Obama 49-48 or tied 48-48 or 48-47. But in no poll is Obama at 50, and in no poll has he been at 50. His approval isn’t at 50. But even if you have a six-point, seven-point spread, there’s still Ohio out there. It really… Nothing against those of you live in Ohio, please. It just bugs me that this is gonna come down to one state.
If it came down to Florida, it would bug me. One state? That means the Democrats… If that’s what it’s gonna come down to is Ohio, they can go everywhere, take every fraudulent cheating resource they’ve got and put it into Ohio. We shall see. Anyway, Beckel says if it’s 52-45 or 51-45, it’s over. And he didn’t throw Ohio in there. If it’s 52-45, that’s not quite a landslide, but you’re getting there. Here’s F. Chuck Todd last night on the NBC Nightly News reporting new polls about the presidential race.
TODD: New NBC News polls in two of those states today show the Obama-Biden ticket still holding a small but significant edge. In Iowa, an eight-point advantage 51-43, and in Wisconsin it’s a six point contest: Obama 51, Romney 45. And we saw no real difference in our poll among respondents we talked to before Tuesday’s debate compared to those polled last night.
RUSH: See? No debate bounce. And they can’t understand that! F. Chuck and his buddies in the media can’t understand. They thought Obama cleaned Romney’s clock in that debate. Now, the two polls he’s talking about here, Wisconsin and Iowa, those are Marist, reported by NBC/Wall Street Journal… I gotta take a break here, but I gotta tell you one interesting fact about these two polls.
RUSH: Nate Silver is the numbers cruncher at the New York Times, and he’s pointing everybody to a video at Reuters. “It isn’t over! Romney isn’t winning anything! Forget the Gallup poll. Romney’s not winning anything,” and he points to all these other polls out where it’s within the margin-of-error tied. I think it’s incorrect to say Romney’s not winning anything, but the Gallup poll is the only one that’s reporting what it’s reporting, although Real Clear Politics…
You know, Missouri’s in the tank now for Romney. That would put him at 210-and-whatever electoral votes over Obama’s 201. Anyway, I want to get some calls, too, in this. This Marist poll of Iowa and Wisconsin with Romney behind in both those polls by five and seven points, six or eight points, whatever it is. The one thing to know about those two state polls: They do not show any change after the first debate. They don’t.
Those two state polls, the Marist poll reported by NBC in the Wall Street Journal yesterday… I can’t tell you the number of people who sent those polls to me all depressed. “Oh, God, Rush! I knew not to believe Gallup. Oh, God, it’s over! Obama’s gonna win. Look at this.” I looked at it, and I looked at it, and I saw these polls have never changed. They don’t change. As far as those two polls were concerned, there wasn’t a first debate. So these are the only two polls that don’t reflect any difference in their data after the first debate.
RUSH: Here’s Scott Rasmussen — now, I told you there was no Obama bounce after the second debate. Snerdley, insolence. How do you explain that? ‘Cause you were here, you heard it. ‘Cause he didn’t win the debate. That was not an Obama slam dunk, not like the inside-the-Beltway minions think so. Here’s Scott Rasmussen. He’s on with Megyn Kelly on Fox News, and she said, “What do those numbers tell us about the impact of the presidential debate in Hempstead, Long Island?”
RASMUSSEN: Mitt Romney had a big gain after that first debate. The president had a much better performance in the second debate in Long Island, but it looks like all he managed to do was stop the bleeding. The numbers are not shifting back in his direction; they’re holding steady. The fact that Florida and Virginia, Romney increased his lead by a point in each of those states, is really indicative of a very close race. We see the same in some other battleground states.
RUSH: Whoa! Not only did the Bamster not get a bounce, it looked like Romney bumped up a little bit in some battleground states after the second debate. I don’t want to sit here and say I told you, but I don’t have to. I think you all saw the same debate I did. I’m sure that you thought that Romney could have done better in a couple of points where he coulda slammed Obama into the turf, but in terms of reciting Obama’s agenda to him and his economic performance and no rebuttal to it, I’m telling you, it was another very damaging debate for Obama, debate number two was. I don’t care what Candy Crowley says. I don’t care what people in the establishment say in the way they score the debate. This doesn’t surprise me in the slightest.