RUSH: 51-46, Mitt Romney over Barack Obama in the daily Gallup tracking poll. And Romney has moved ahead in the ABC/Washington Post poll by three, if what I have is correct, and I have to give caveats here because I’ve got stuff flowing in here like you can’t believe, and there’s only one person that sifts through all of it and that’s me. I need to actually offer almost a pre-apology in case something I get in here is wrong, but I think this one is accurate.
We also have Wisconsin. This is important, now. Wisconsin, 49-49 — and it’s Rasmussen — 49-49. And you go back to 2008, Obama carried Wisconsin 56-42. Now, Scott Walker, how many recalls did he survive there, two? Three. Two or three. And in every one of them, in every one of those, Scott Walker, governor of Wisconsin recalls, the Democrats were gonna wipe the floor, remember all that? The media, everybody told us, “Yeah, those polls had Walker losing by a point, losing by two points, maybe up a point,” and he ends up winning it by seven. Something big is happening in Wisconsin, and there’s stuff happening in Oregon, and there’s stuff happening in Iowa and there’s stuff happening in Ohio and there’s stuff happening in North Carolina. There is stuff happening all over the place, and the Obama regime is looking smaller and smaller and smaller as they react to it.
Madison, Wisconsin is San Francisco of the Midwest. It’s 49-49. In 2008, Obama carried Wisconsin 56-42. Obama won by 14 points four years ago. And among the 90% who say they have already made up their minds in Wisconsin, it’s Romney 51, Obama 48.
No, I have not forgotten the Lena Dunham ad. I’ve got it here. It’s coming up. Be patient. The Washington Post now, Romney is up by three in the ABC News/Washington Post poll. And Romney has hit 50. “Mitt Romney has seized further advantage on economic issues at the core of the 2012 campaign, taking him to 50 percent support among likely voters vs. 47 percent for Barack Obama — RomneyÂ’s highest vote-preference result of the contest to date.” What an admission. What a shift this is.
On Monday this same tracking poll had Obama 49 and Romney 48. Last week they had Romney down by three. ABC News/Washington Post. This is their tracking poll. This is the largest margin yet for Romney, 50 to 47. This poll oversampled Democrats by four. In a Democrat plus-four poll, Romney’s up by three. So how does that happen? The biggest change in this poll has come from likely voters now picking Romney over Obama in handling the economy, 52-43 in the ABC/Washington Post poll. So Romney up nine among likely voters on the economy. That’s the first time either candidate has ever had a clear lead on the economy.
Exactly as predicted, by the way. Just like some of these other polls. NBC/Wall Street Journal, they’ve had Obama plus five, Obama plus seven. They’ve got Democrat samples of plus ten. And then earlier this week, guess what? Poll comes out, and they’re tied 49-49. Exactly as I predicted would happen as we get closer to the election. I’m not patting myself on the back, but if I don’t, who will? But that’s not what I’m doing. I’m just telling you, this stuff is predictable. The polls are used to move and shake public opinion. Why have all of these massive plus nine, plus ten Democrat samples when the turnout’s not gonna be anywhere near that.
Independents, are you ready? In the ABC News/Washington Post poll, independents side with Romney now in record numbers in both the economy, 61-34, independents, Romney over Obama, and on understanding people’s problems, Romney plus ten, 52-40. Do you realize how huge that is? That’s Obama’s bread and butter. It’s always been his bread and butter. Obama’s likability, he not of the 1%. He understands your plight. Obama understands the hell that you’re going through in your daily life because of George Bush. Obama understands. He’s likable.
Romney up ten in independents who believe that Romney better understands people’s problems. And independents, 61 to 34, Romney over Obama on the economy. In foreign affairs, Romney has now essentially tied Obama. That means he has erased the eight-point lead Obama had in early September in this poll on foreign affairs. There’s also a Pew Research Center poll, and we learn from the Pew poll — remember our program yesterday. Republican enthusiasm for the presidential race is now the highest it has been all year. In fact, Pew’s findings represent a huge change from just after the party conventions in September. The Democrat enthusiasm was stronger after the Democrat convention. In the latest poll, Pew found that Republicans’ interest is up 23 points since early September, which means there has been a boost in Republican enthusiasm of 23 points in less than one month.
Do you believe that? I know you’ll take it, and I know some of you probably will believe that there has been a bunch of people on the Republican side depressed and suppressed and despondent, but I don’t. I think Republican enthusiasm has been “get me to the polling place yesterday” for two years. See, I still go back and measure everything against 2010. And then I ask myself, what’s happened since then? Has Obama gotten more likable? No. Has the economy gotten any better? No. Has employment improved? No. Number of people in poverty come down? No. Has median family income risen? No. Number of people on food stamps gone down? No.
There’s no improvement. There’s nothing. The housing market zilch, zero, nada. Kids coming out of college with degrees, job prospects, not better. Nothing has improved since 2010. What happened in 2010? Republican landslide, all the way down the ballot to dogcatcher. The Democrats lost over 600 seats, legislative seats in Congress and statehouses all the way down to city council, 600-plus. And there wasn’t a Republican on the ballot, and there wasn’t a Republican agenda. What there was was the Tea Party and a bunch of conservatives rising up saying, “This is not the future of the country. This is not what we’re gonna put up with. We’re not gonna tolerate this. This is not who we are.”
Now we got a candidate. Now we’ve got an agenda. We’ve got even more in our favor than we had in 2010. So where is it written that the enthusiasm would be down in the gutter and even need to be resurrected by 23 points? I mean, I’ll take it, don’t misunderstand, and I understand some people’s enthusiasm, you watch the media, you get all depressed. Folks, I ought to share with you, just to show you what I get every day. I sent some people an e-mail last night just summarizing the stuff I am told that I ought to believe and the stuff I ought to be saying every day, and it is fatalistic, defeated, so forth, and it sometimes makes me angry, sometimes frustrates me that people think this, they can’t see how blatant the good opportunities are out there.
But I’m telling you, as I say, I’ll take all this polling data which shows Romney ahead and shows Romney’s lead widening in certain places and tying Obama in certain places. My only point is I don’t think it’s happening in just the last week like the polls are telling us. That frankly is an insult to my intelligence. How long have you been intending to vote against Obama, for example? Did you just decide last week? There’s so many factors here, people being honest and dishonest with pollsters and all kinds of things.
My point is that the Romney momentum has been a conservative momentum, and it’s been out there for a long time. And the momentum is now intensifying because we have a presidential campaign, not just a series of House and Senate races, that are on the ballot. I got some other polling data as well to share with you. I guess this is why I got the call yesterday saying I’m sounding too optimistic here; is that right? Too positive. Too optimistic. All I’m doing is telling you what the polls say today and reacting to it.
Well, BS, that’s my whole point. What do you mean, people aren’t gonna work as hard? They’re gonna be even more inspired. Would it be better if I said, “You know what, folks, don’t trust this ABC poll that shows Romney up three. They’re just doing that to get you to sit back on your laurels and not vote.” Not everything is a brilliantly conceived, flawlessly executed liberal media scheme. They don’t do everything flawlessly. They don’t always win. They don’t always succeed at these things. But I understand, there are reasons why people are hesitant. For example, look at the Benghazi thing. Where the hell are elected Republicans on this expressing outrage? Why is it just Fox News and talk radio, for example? You know, where’s the Republican leadership in the House?
Boehner sent a letter to Obama, I know, I know, but leave it up to the media to get the letter out. The point is, I understand how some of you can feel the way you do. But I’m simply reacting to the polling data that’s out there today. And, by the way, back to Wisconsin, Biden has now scheduled two campaign appearances there. I’m just gonna tell you, there is no way that the regime ever planned, ever thought they would be in Wisconsin ten days before the election, no way. They are in Wisconsin trying to save it. If they’re in trouble in Wisconsin, and folks, there’s Oregon lurking out there, too. I don’t want to make too big a deal about that, but Oregon’s lurking out there. There are a number of similar type places.
We’re starting to see stories about these polls and how they are not accurately reflecting the genuine Romney strength or Republican strength. The Romney campaign just bought some ads in Minnesota. When’s the last time Republicans won Minnesota? Reagan’s 49 landslide was not Minnesota, right? ‘Cause that was Mondale, and he’s the favorite son, Minnesota. Richard Nixon was the last Republican to win Minnesota, and the Romney camp is buying time. So Biden’s gonna be in Oshkosh. And Oshkosh Corporation, which is Wisconsin’s largest employer, just announced that they’re gonna be having layoffs in January because of defense cuts. Oshkosh. It’s another reason why Biden’s headed in there.
Okay, now I’m getting really confused here. I’ve got three different versions of this ABC/Washington poll right in front of me here. I’ve just got an e-mail that says: “Romney Ekes Out Bragging Rights.” This date is October 23rd, and it’s got Romney 49-48. I’ve got another one here from the 25th that says Romney 49-48. Then I’ve got one that’s also from yesterday that has Romney at 50-47. I got three different Washington Post results here and in two of the three Romney is up either by one point or by three. The one that I told you about is the Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll, and this is the one from yesterday, late yesterday, that has Romney up by 50 to 47, up huge in independents, on the economy, and understanding people’s problems.
I got people saying, “No, no, that’s wrong, it’s not that,” and the date on the one claiming I’m wrong is two days ago, three days ago. At any rate, it’s really hard to keep up with this stuff. I think Washington Post/ABC may have two different polls, a tracking poll and then whatever they call the other one. Also, Rasmussen himself said, yeah, two or three days of Romney at 50, that’s not really anything to write home about, ’cause we do this every day, we roll the averages. You need four days of consistent results to show that something’s really settled in. Well, today Rasmussen’s got it Obama 46, 47. So you got the fourth day with Rasmussen today at that lead. You’ve got Wisconsin. Whatever the truth is with the ABC News/Washington Post poll, either Romney’s up three or up one, or there are two separate polls, and I’m sorry, folks, I just have all this stuff coming in. You cannot imagine. I’ve got three minutes to sift through all of it and try to make sense of it.
RUSH: Okay, here it is. I’m really sorry about this, folks. I’m sorry for the confusion. The latest ABC/Washington Post tracking poll is not as I said and as I was told, 50-47. It is 49-48, Romney over Obama. Yesterday was 50-47 Romney over Obama, and yesterday did have all of the internal data that I shared with you. It’s a daily tracking poll comes out noon or one o’clock and today it’s Romney 49, Obama 48. The bottom line is, Romney hasn’t led in this poll until now. The Washington Post has always had Obama ahead, as you know, and they’ve got the daily tracking poll, then they’ve got their — I don’t know how often now, weekly or every other day, but it’s different than a tracking poll. The bottom line, if you look at all the tracking, the polling data taking place, it’s all trending Romney now. It’s all trending in Romney’s direction, and it has been for over a week.